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Ice Lab

Tue, Jan 26, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary

Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Calgary Flames 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 51% of the time.

CGY winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 3:41Shot by Holl, saved by Markstrom
  3. P1 3:43Shot by Simmonds, saved by Markstrom
  4. P1 3:44Goal by Simmonds (Holl, Vesey)+17 pts WP

    On ice: CGY Backlund, Nesterov, Leivo, Bennett, Välimäki · TOR Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Vesey, Kerfoot

  5. P1 4:59Shot by Marner, saved by Markstrom
  6. P1 8:11Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Markstrom
  7. P1 9:15Shot by Vesey, saved by Markstrom
  8. P1 11:50Engvall: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: CGY Lucic, Nordstrom, Nesterov, Ryan, Välimäki · TOR Bogosian, Boyd, Engvall, Anderson, Lehtonen

  9. P1 12:56Lindholm: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: CGY Lucic, Backlund, Tanev, Bennett, Välimäki · TOR Brodie, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews, Mikheyev

  10. P1 14:16Goal by Matthews (Marner, Rielly)4v5+15 pts WP

    On ice: CGY Backlund, Nesterov, Ryan, Välimäki · TOR Simmonds, Rielly, Kerfoot, Marner, Matthews

  11. P1 15:43Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  12. P1 17:13Ryan: High sticking (2 min)5v6

    On ice: CGY Tanev, Gaudreau, Monahan, Hanifin, Simon · TOR Simmonds, Rielly, Kerfoot, Nylander, Marner, Matthews

  13. P1 17:40Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Markstrom4v5
  14. P1 17:49Shot by Matthews, saved by Markstrom4v5
  15. P1 18:25Shot by Tavares, saved by Markstrom4v5
  16. P1 0:00Period end
  17. P2 0:00Period start
  18. P2 0:47Shot by Nylander, saved by Markstrom
  19. P2 1:06Shot by Monahan, saved by Andersen
  20. P2 1:08Goal by Gaudreau (Monahan, Hanifin)+15 pts WP

    On ice: CGY Tanev, Gaudreau, Monahan, Hanifin, Simon · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Rielly, Nylander, Mikheyev

  21. P2 2:09Goal by Boyd (Engvall, Muzzin)+15 pts WP

    On ice: CGY Backlund, Nordstrom, Nesterov, Leivo, Välimäki · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Boyd, Engvall, Anderson

  22. P2 4:21Shot by Brodie, saved by Markstrom
  23. P2 5:14Shot by Välimäki, saved by Andersen
  24. P2 5:51Shot by Hanifin, saved by Andersen
  25. P2 8:05Shot by Tanev, saved by Andersen
  26. P2 8:16Shot by Lindholm, saved by Andersen
  27. P2 8:23Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  28. P2 8:47Shot by Lindholm, saved by Andersen
  29. P2 9:49Shot by Andersson, saved by Andersen
  30. P2 11:19Shot by Leivo, saved by Andersen
  31. P2 12:00Shot by Lindholm, saved by Andersen
  32. P2 12:24Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  33. P2 12:31Shot by Lindholm, saved by Andersen
  34. P2 12:34Shot by Tkachuk, saved by Andersen
  35. P2 14:21Goal by Lucic (Välimäki, Backlund)+16 pts WP

    On ice: CGY Lucic, Backlund, Nesterov, Bennett, Välimäki · TOR Simmonds, Bogosian, Vesey, Kerfoot, Lehtonen

  36. P2 17:14Shot by Tavares, saved by Markstrom
  37. P2 17:17Shot by Lehtonen, saved by Markstrom
  38. P2 17:48Shot by Bennett, saved by Andersen
  39. P2 17:49Shot by Välimäki, saved by Andersen
  40. P2 17:59Marner: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: CGY Tanev, Lindholm, Mangiapane, Hanifin, Tkachuk · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, Marner, Matthews

  41. P2 18:12Shot by Lindholm, saved by Andersen5v4
  42. P2 0:00Period end
  43. P3 0:00Period start
  44. P3 1:49Shot by Backlund, saved by Andersen
  45. P3 2:09Shot by Giordano, saved by Andersen
  46. P3 3:13Shot by Hanifin, saved by Andersen
  47. P3 5:11Shot by Vesey, saved by Markstrom
  48. P3 8:28Shot by Tanev, saved by Andersen
  49. P3 8:28Tavares: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: CGY Tanev, Gaudreau, Monahan, Hanifin, Simon · TOR Brodie, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Mikheyev

  50. P3 9:03Goal by Gaudreau (Monahan, Giordano)5v4+31 pts WP

    On ice: CGY Giordano, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan, Tkachuk · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, Kerfoot

  51. P3 10:51Shot by Brodie, saved by Markstrom
  52. P3 12:14Goal by Marner (Matthews, Rielly)+37 pts WP

    On ice: CGY Lucic, Backlund, Nesterov, Bennett, Välimäki · TOR Bogosian, Hyman, Rielly, Marner, Matthews

  53. P3 12:31Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Markstrom
  54. P3 14:42Shot by Marner, saved by Markstrom
  55. P3 14:47Shot by Hyman, saved by Markstrom
  56. P3 15:44Shot by Bennett, saved by Andersen
  57. P3 17:41Anderson: Delaying game puck over glass (2 min)

    On ice: CGY Giordano, Lucic, Backlund, Bennett, Andersson · TOR Brodie, Boyd, Rielly, Engvall, Anderson

  58. P3 19:47Shot by Andersson, saved by Andersen6v5
  59. P3 0:00Final
  60. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  61. P3 0:00Muzzin: Unsportsmanlike conduct (2 min)6v5

    On ice: CGY Giordano, Gaudreau, Lindholm, Monahan, Andersson, Tkachuk · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, Marner, Matthews