Mon, Feb 1, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Nashville Predators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 013 | 010 | 28 | 231 |
| TBL | 313 | 16 | 19 | 528 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:13TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Steven Stamkos, Jan Rutta · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 13:59TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Tyler Johnson, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–2
- P1 19:59TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Mathieu Joseph, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.16 xG0–3
- P2 7:23TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–4
- P3 2:53NSHEeli TolvanenAssists: Erik Haula · Snap, 0.08 xG1–4
- P3 5:41NSHMikael GranlundAssists: Ryan Ellis, Roman Josi · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–4
- P3 19:44TBLYanni GourdeENAssists: Barclay Goodrow · Wrist, 0.66 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:48NSHJarred Tinordi: Holding2 min
- P1 4:30TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P1 11:54NSHRoman Josi: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:45NSHErik Haula: Interference2 min
- P2 6:41NSHNick Cousins: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:57TBLErik Cernak: Interference2 min
- P2 12:13TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Johansen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestJohansen – Cousins – Arvidsson3:46
xG 0.39–0.11 (77%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Duchene – Granlund – Forsberg8:52
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Grimaldi – Sissons – Olivier2:34
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Johansen – Arvidsson – Trenin3:55
xG 0.00–0.24 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Tinordi – Benning8:28
xG 0.39–0.34 (53%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Ekholm – Fabbro8:03
xG 0.14–0.14 (49%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro3:33
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestColeman – Goodrow – Gourde6:33
xG 1.07–0.01 (100%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Maroon – Joseph2:02
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point7:00
xG 0.41–0.70 (37%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Killorn – Johnson – Cirelli8:07
xG 0.18–0.55 (24%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Hedman4:45
xG 0.93–0.23 (80%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev2:54
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Foote6:11
xG 0.03–0.14 (20%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).