Mon, Feb 8, 2021·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Nashville Predators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 117 | 110 | 28 | 435 |
| NSH | 06 | 06 | 112 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Alex Killorn, Erik Cernak · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 13:02TBLAnthony CirelliPPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Patrick Maroon · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–0
- P3 11:08NSHDante FabbroPPAssists: Matt Duchene, Mikael Granlund · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 18:22TBLBlake ColemanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–1
- P3 19:58TBLSteven StamkosENAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.70 xG4–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:04TBLLuke Schenn: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:04NSHMathieu Olivier: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:50NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:45TBLVictor Hedman: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:05NSHMatt Benning: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 17:38TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:38TBLSteven Stamkos: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:38NSHNick Cousins: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:23NSHCalle Jarnkrok: Interference2 min
- P3 5:59TBLAlex Killorn: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:55TBLAnthony Cirelli: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Haula
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Cirelli9:22
xG 0.33–0.12 (74%)attempts 12–7goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point10:43
xG 0.25–0.05 (84%)attempts 13–2goals 0–0
- Coleman – Goodrow – Gourde10:13
xG 0.27–0.09 (74%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Maroon – Joseph – Volkov7:38
xG 0.11–0.09 (54%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Sergachev8:58
xG 0.37–0.09 (81%)attempts 11–2goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta13:28
xG 0.27–0.11 (72%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Cernak11:36
xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- McCarron – Trenin – Olivier6:58
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Haula – Granlund – Cousins10:09
xG 0.05–0.17 (23%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Sissons – Tolvanen8:15
xG 0.11–0.26 (29%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Duchene – Forsberg – Arvidsson10:48
xG 0.15–0.43 (26%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestEllis – Tinordi2:54
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Tinordi – Benning2:48
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Josi – Fabbro5:18
xG 0.05–0.09 (37%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).