Wed, Mar 31, 2021·Ball Arena, Denver
Arizona Coyotes 3, Colorado Avalanche 9
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 213 | 18 | 010 | 331 |
| COL | 518 | 110 | 310 | 938 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:04COLJoonas DonskoiAssists: Tyson Jost, Samuel Girard · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P1 4:31COLAndre BurakovskyAssists: Nazem Kadri, Samuel Girard · Slap, 0.11 xG0–2
- P1 4:41ARIMichael BuntingAssists: Alex Goligoski, Nick Schmaltz · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P1 5:36COLPierre-Edouard BellemareAssists: J.T. Compher, Jacob MacDonald · Slap, 0.09 xG1–3
- P1 6:04COLJoonas DonskoiGWGAssists: Ryan Graves, Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.27 xG1–4
- P1 7:31COLJoonas DonskoiPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.21 xG1–5
- P1 18:57ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Lawson Crouse · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
- P2 17:45ARIConor GarlandAssists: Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–5
- P2 18:06COLGabriel LandeskogUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–6
- P3 6:05COLMikko RantanenPPAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–7
- P3 11:57COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–8
- P3 16:49COLAndre BurakovskySHAssists: Joonas Donskoi, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–9
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:49ARIAlex Goligoski: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:22ARIDryden Hunt: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P1 10:32COLTyson Jost: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 11:15ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:19COLDevon Toews: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:36COLTyson Jost: Hooking2 min
- P1 17:33COLMikko Rantanen: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 0:00ARIJohn Hayden: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 15:12COLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:33ARIJohn Hayden: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 14:41ARIConor Garland: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:41COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:41COLNathan MacKinnon: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:41COLNathan MacKinnon: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brassard won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestLarsson – Hayden – Hunt2:30
xG 0.21–0.05 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–1
- Brassard – Hunt – Crouse6:17
xG 0.10–0.33 (23%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
- Hayden – Schmaltz – Bunting7:52
xG 0.17–0.40 (30%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Dvorak – Fischer – Garland7:06
xG 0.10–0.60 (15%)attempts 4–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Demers – Oesterle11:42
xG 0.40–0.71 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 1–2
- Goligoski – Chychrun14:47
xG 0.23–0.92 (20%)attempts 8–15goals 1–2
- Ekman-Larsson – Lyubushkin11:25
xG 0.24–0.96 (20%)attempts 3–23goals 0–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDonskoi – Nichushkin – Jost6:24
xG 1.13–0.18 (86%)attempts 14–4goals 2–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen10:46
xG 0.61–0.35 (64%)attempts 13–6goals 2–1
- Compher – Nichushkin – Jost2:00
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kadri – Saad – Burakovsky10:03
xG 0.30–0.33 (47%)attempts 8–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard9:19
xG 0.86–0.18 (83%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
- Graves – Makar11:24
xG 0.76–0.14 (84%)attempts 15–4goals 2–1
- Renouf – MacDonald8:33
xG 0.31–0.21 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).