Fri, Apr 9, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Washington Capitals 4, Buffalo Sabres 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 27 | 115 | 111 | 433 |
| BUF | 19 | 112 | 112 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:39WSHBrenden DillonAssists: Justin Schultz, T.J. Oshie · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 11:39WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Brenden Dillon, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.00 xG2–0
- P1 18:26BUFHenri JokiharjuAssists: Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P2 0:28WSHJustin SchultzAssists: Lars Eller · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P2 10:08BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 9:48WSHJakub VranaGWGAssists: Justin Schultz, Lars Eller · Slap, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 18:40BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen · Tip-in, 0.07 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 12:38WSHDmitry Orlov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:45WSHNick Jensen: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:41BUFVictor Olofsson: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 16:20WSHJohn Carlson: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dowd won the faceoff against Reinhart
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestOvechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson11:05
xG 0.57–0.08 (87%)attempts 13–3goals 1–0
- Oshie – Eller – Vrana9:10
xG 0.36–0.33 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 2–0
- Backstrom – Sheary – Sprong12:08
xG 0.32–0.39 (46%)attempts 16–11goals 0–1
- Hagelin – Dowd – Hathaway13:33
xG 0.08–0.60 (11%)attempts 7–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Jensen12:26
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
- Schultz – Dillon17:42
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 12–11goals 3–0
- Carlson – Orlov17:32
xG 0.48–0.75 (39%)attempts 22–22goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestAsplund – Thompson – Mittelstadt11:18
xG 0.45–0.22 (67%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Skinner – Reinhart – Olofsson12:05
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Okposo – Sheahan – Ruotsalainen10:16
xG 0.18–0.61 (22%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Dahlin16:23
xG 0.75–0.51 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 1–1
- Miller – Montour11:31
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 13–10goals 1–0
- Ristolainen – Bryson15:27
xG 0.23–0.77 (23%)attempts 11–17goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).