Sat, Feb 20, 2021·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 013 | 48 | 16 | 527 |
| MTL | 010 | 216 | 17 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:03TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 1:20TORTravis BoydPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–0
- P2 3:24MTLJesperi KotkaniemiAssists: Tomas Tatar, Joel Edmundson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 3:57MTLPaul ByronUnassisted · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 7:31TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Zach Bogosian · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 15:05TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–2
- P3 13:36TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Jason Spezza, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.15 xG5–2
- P3 18:34MTLTyler ToffoliAssists: Alexander Romanov, Brendan Gallagher · Backhand, 0.11 xG5–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:14TORZach Bogosian: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:04MTLVictor Mete: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 19:45MTLBen Chiarot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:24MTLVictor Mete: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:05MTLJosh Anderson: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:05TORJake Muzzin: Interference2 min
- P3 19:42MTLTyler Toffoli: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Danault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Engvall – Mikheyev12:14
xG 0.51–0.19 (72%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marner – Matthews11:25
xG 0.10–0.18 (36%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Vesey7:25
xG 0.10–0.38 (22%)attempts 6–12goals 0–2
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander11:36
xG 0.42–0.74 (36%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly16:10
xG 0.51–0.30 (63%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Bogosian – Dermott13:35
xG 0.54–0.47 (53%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Holl17:32
xG 0.32–0.73 (30%)attempts 12–18goals 0–2
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestToffoli – Gallagher – Danault13:00
xG 0.46–0.13 (78%)attempts 15–6goals 1–0
- Byron – Lehkonen – Evans9:56
xG 0.43–0.10 (80%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Tatar – Armia – Kotkaniemi9:21
xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Anderson – Drouin – Suzuki12:24
xG 0.32–0.64 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Edmundson15:21
xG 1.05–0.36 (74%)attempts 14–13goals 1–1
- Weber – Chiarot16:46
xG 0.46–0.27 (63%)attempts 17–6goals 0–1
- Mete – Romanov15:17
xG 0.33–0.84 (28%)attempts 11–16goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).