Wed, Mar 3, 2021·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Toronto Maple Leafs 6, Edmonton Oilers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 110 | 411 | 111 | 632 |
| EDM | 09 | 19 | 09 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:03TORJimmy VeseyAssists: Travis Boyd, Jason Spezza · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 2:57TORJimmy VeseyGWGAssists: Jason Spezza, Travis Boyd · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P2 4:44TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Joe Thornton, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.27 xG3–0
- P2 7:02TORIlya MikheyevAssists: Zach Hyman, Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.25 xG4–0
- P2 13:46EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsAssists: Leon Draisaitl, Kris Russell · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–1
- P2 18:22TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.13 xG5–1
- P3 10:33TORZach HymanPPAssists: Jason Spezza, TJ Brodie · Backhand, 0.35 xG6–1
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:38EDMJames Neal: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 10:35EDMEthan Bear: Holding2 min
- P2 19:43EDMJoakim Nygard: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:24EDMMike Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:22EDMRyan Nugent-Hopkins: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Engvall – Mikheyev10:24
xG 0.61–0.28 (68%)attempts 7–12goals 1–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:20
xG 0.44–0.19 (69%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Vesey8:41
xG 0.44–0.25 (64%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
- Thornton – Marner – Matthews13:06
xG 0.62–0.82 (43%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly17:54
xG 1.16–0.32 (78%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Muzzin – Holl19:07
xG 0.90–0.97 (48%)attempts 13–25goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Dermott13:53
xG 0.45–0.63 (41%)attempts 7–12goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestEnnis – McDavid – Puljujarvi2:46
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Turris – McDavid – Nygard2:21
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Neal – Archibald – Khaira3:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Nugent-Hopkins – Draisaitl – Yamamoto14:45
xG 0.86–1.01 (46%)attempts 19–8goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLarsson – Nurse5:32
xG 0.60–0.09 (86%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Russell – Barrie15:13
xG 0.66–0.75 (47%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Barrie – Jones2:34
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).