Sun, Mar 14, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Ottawa Senators 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 012 | 215 | 336 |
| OTT | 214 | 213 | 04 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:06OTTBrady TkachukUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 6:13OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Clark Bishop, Mike Reilly · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 11:38TORZach HymanAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–2
- P2 5:00OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 5:53OTTDrake BathersonGWGAssists: Christian Wolanin, Chris Tierney · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
- P3 14:40TORZach HymanAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.30 xG2–4
- P3 17:48TORJohn TavaresAssists: Zach Hyman, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:41OTTAustin Watson: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:41TORZach Bogosian: Instigator2 min
- P1 6:41TORZach Bogosian: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:41TORZach Bogosian: Misconduct10 min
- P1 18:00TORMitch Marner: Slashing2 min
- P2 3:58TORZach Hyman: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 8:21OTTClark Bishop: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Marner – Matthews13:08
xG 1.12–0.37 (75%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Spezza – Boyd – Vesey2:59
xG 0.40–0.47 (46%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander3:39
xG 0.01–0.13 (4%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Mikheyev5:52
xG 0.12–0.26 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly14:10
xG 1.21–0.87 (58%)attempts 18–19goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Brodie3:33
xG 0.35–0.02 (95%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Holl – Dermott3:27
xG 0.00–0.00 (87%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestTierney – Batherson – Stützle9:15
xG 0.84–0.20 (81%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Watson – Dzingel – Bishop5:01
xG 0.49–0.17 (75%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Watson – Paul – White2:47
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Paul – White6:48
xG 0.17–0.37 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestReilly – Zub11:30
xG 0.77–0.15 (84%)attempts 13–5goals 2–0
- Gudbranson – Wolanin9:25
xG 0.66–0.21 (76%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Gudbranson – Chabot3:22
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).