Fri, Mar 19, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 37 | 19 | 02 | 418 |
| TOR | 212 | 17 | 08 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:19CGYMatthew TkachukAssists: Nikita Nesterov, Elias Lindholm · Slap, 0.03 xG1–0
- P1 7:33CGYDerek RyanAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Milan Lucic · Slap, 0.12 xG2–0
- P1 12:47TORJason SpezzaAssists: Morgan Rielly, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 18:55CGYChris TanevAssists: Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P1 19:35TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Zach Bogosian, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–2
- P2 3:48TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–3
- P2 12:33CGYMark GiordanoPPGWGAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.03 xG4–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 1:44TORJustin Holl: Cross checking2 min
- P2 7:15CGYJuuso Välimäki: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:28CGYMatthew Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P2 10:28TORJustin Holl: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 12:30TORIlya Mikheyev: Holding2 min
- P2 19:42TORJohn Tavares: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:33CGYMikael Backlund: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:06CGYDerek Ryan: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestLucic – Backlund – Mangiapane9:10
xG 0.38–0.15 (72%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Leivo – Bennett – Ryan8:16
xG 0.32–0.15 (69%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Gaudreau – Ritchie – Monahan11:14
xG 0.11–0.67 (14%)attempts 2–15goals 0–2
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube8:49
xG 0.06–0.64 (9%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Giordano – Andersson15:25
xG 0.35–0.48 (42%)attempts 9–16goals 0–1
- Nesterov – Välimäki10:11
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 2–10goals 1–0
- Tanev – Hanifin16:43
xG 0.49–0.87 (36%)attempts 14–15goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Marner – Matthews8:02
xG 0.64–0.01 (98%)attempts 10–2goals 1–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander9:21
xG 0.49–0.15 (76%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Mikheyev2:57
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews2:08
xG 0.08–0.08 (49%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl10:59
xG 1.09–0.10 (91%)attempts 17–3goals 2–0
- Bogosian – Dermott5:22
xG 0.23–0.13 (64%)attempts 7–5goals 0–1
- Muzzin – Bogosian2:41
xG 0.05–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).