Fri, Mar 19, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Calgary Flames 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.
70%
8%
14%
TOR winsCGY wins
Who was on the ice
Model-basedLine matchups and every shift of the game.
TOR forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against CGY's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.
| Gaudreau–Ritchie–Monahan | Lucic–Backlund–Mangiapane | Lindholm–Tkachuk–Dube | Leivo–Bennett–Ryan | Lucic–Lindholm–Dube | Tanev–Hanifin | Giordano–Andersson | Nesterov–Välimäki | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tavares–Galchenyuk–Nylander | 1:100.08–0.00 | 2:540.00–0.09 | 2:270.33–0.03 | 1:220.00–0.01 | 0:400.05–0.00 | 4:590.29–0.12 | 1:300.08–0.00 | 2:270.12–0.03 |
| Thornton–Marner–Matthews | 2:340.33–0.00 | 1:350.00–0.00 | 1:240.31–0.00 | 1:110.00–0.00 | 0:350.00–0.00 | 3:060.10–0.00 | 3:540.31–0.01 | |
| Hyman–Kerfoot–Mikheyev | 2:030.00–0.01 | 1:110.00–0.00 | 1:130.00–0.00 | 0:580.00–0.10 | 0:530.00–0.03 | 2:020.00–0.01 | 2:170.00–0.00 | |
| Spezza–Simmonds–Engvall | 1:040.25–0.00 | 0:390.00–0.01 | 1:100.00–0.00 | 3:010.00–0.26 | 1:160.00–0.01 | |||
| Kerfoot–Engvall–Mikheyev | 0:390.00–0.00 | 1:010.00–0.00 | 0:470.04–0.00 | 1:080.00–0.00 | ||||
| Hyman–Marner–Matthews | 0:470.00–0.02 | 1:110.08–0.07 | 1:270.08–0.02 | |||||
| Thornton–Simmonds–Matthews | 0:490.06–0.00 | 0:330.06–0.00 | ||||||
| Brodie–Rielly | 4:290.26–0.00 | 2:090.00–0.26 | 1:060.00–0.01 | 1:400.00–0.00 | 3:430.18–0.03 | 5:190.00–0.26 | 1:520.00–0.01 | |
| Muzzin–Holl | 1:380.33–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 4:500.52–0.00 | 1:120.08–0.07 | 4:310.44–0.02 | 3:040.35–0.08 | 1:490.00–0.00 | |
| Bogosian–Dermott | 3:130.11–0.00 | 1:040.04–0.10 | 1:450.14–0.03 | 1:520.09–0.01 | 1:320.00–0.03 | |||
| Brodie–Dermott | 0:480.00–0.09 | 1:390.02–0.15 | 2:150.03–0.25 | 0:440.05–0.00 | ||||
| Bogosian–Rielly | 0:420.00–0.00 | 0:500.00–0.00 | 1:180.03–0.00 | 0:380.00–0.00 | ||||
| Muzzin–Bogosian | 1:000.00–0.00 | 0:320.00–0.00 | 0:400.05–0.00 | 0:550.05–0.00 | 0:520.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | ||
| Rielly–Dermott | 1:250.00–0.10 | 0:370.00–0.00 | 1:060.00–0.10 | 1:140.00–0.00 | ||||
| Muzzin–Brodie | 0:490.04–0.03 | 0:300.04–0.03 | 0:400.00–0.00 | |||||
| Bogosian–Brodie | 0:350.00–0.00 | 0:340.00–0.00 | ||||||
| Holl–Rielly | 0:530.12–0.02 | 0:300.12–0.00 |
Every shift, one row per player.
TORCGYFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.
Shift totals
 Morgan RiellyTOR | 27 | 26:45 | 0:59 | 3:18 | 8 | 1 |
 Chris TanevCGY | 31 | 24:31 | 0:47 | 1:45 | 2 | 8 |
 Mitch MarnerTOR | 22 | 24:10 | 1:06 | 2:37 | 7 | 1 |
 Mark GiordanoCGY | 32 | 22:47 | 0:43 | 1:43 | 3 | 6 |
 Noah HanifinCGY | 31 | 22:36 | 0:44 | 1:18 | 1 | 4 |
 Auston MatthewsTOR | 20 | 22:34 | 1:08 | 2:28 | 6 | 2 |
 TJ BrodieTOR | 26 | 22:21 | 0:52 | 1:40 | 7 | 1 |
 Rasmus AnderssonCGY | 34 | 21:58 | 0:39 | 1:13 | 3 | 3 |
 John TavaresTOR | 22 | 20:43 | 0:57 | 1:58 | 4 | 1 |
 Jake MuzzinTOR | 27 | 19:54 | 0:44 | 1:16 | 2 | 3 |
 Elias LindholmCGY | 25 | 19:02 | 0:46 | 1:27 | 3 | 6 |
 William NylanderTOR | 21 | 18:39 | 0:53 | 2:19 | 4 | 1 |
 Zach HymanTOR | 19 | 17:50 | 0:56 | 2:28 | 2 | 1 |
 Sean MonahanCGY | 26 | 17:12 | 0:40 | 1:05 | 2 | 3 |
 Mikael BacklundCGY | 23 | 16:54 | 0:44 | 1:22 | 3 | 4 |
 Andrew MangiapaneCGY | 23 | 15:54 | 0:41 | 1:16 | 4 | 3 |
 Justin HollTOR | 22 | 15:20 | 0:42 | 1:18 | 1 | 2 |
 Milan LucicCGY | 22 | 15:06 | 0:41 | 1:10 | 4 | 2 |
 Zach BogosianTOR | 23 | 14:55 | 0:39 | 1:09 | 1 | 0 |
 Sam BennettCGY | 22 | 14:52 | 0:41 | 1:10 | 2 | 1 |
 Joe ThorntonTOR | 17 | 14:51 | 0:52 | 1:28 | 3 | 1 |
 Johnny GaudreauCGY | 22 | 14:38 | 0:40 | 1:05 | 2 | 3 |
 Nikita NesterovCGY | 23 | 14:28 | 0:38 | 1:12 | 2 | 0 |
 Brett RitchieCGY | 21 | 13:59 | 0:40 | 1:22 | 1 | 2 |
 Matthew TkachukCGY | 18 | 13:09 | 0:44 | 1:23 | 2 | 1 |
 Derek RyanCGY | 18 | 12:42 | 0:42 | 1:20 | 2 | 3 |
 Alexander KerfootTOR | 17 | 12:24 | 0:44 | 1:15 | 0 | 1 |
 Travis DermottTOR | 16 | 12:16 | 0:46 | 1:22 | 1 | 0 |
 Ilya MikheyevTOR | 15 | 12:14 | 0:49 | 1:06 | 0 | 1 |
 Juuso VälimäkiCGY | 18 | 12:13 | 0:41 | 1:18 | 1 | 0 |
 Dillon DubeCGY | 18 | 12:01 | 0:40 | 1:05 | 2 | 1 |
 Pierre EngvallTOR | 14 | 11:23 | 0:49 | 1:37 | 1 | 0 |
 Alex GalchenyukTOR | 16 | 11:19 | 0:42 | 1:06 | 1 | 1 |
 Wayne SimmondsTOR | 13 | 10:36 | 0:49 | 2:16 | 0 | 0 |
 Josh LeivoCGY | 15 | 9:58 | 0:40 | 1:12 | 1 | 1 |
 Jason SpezzaTOR | 18 | 9:41 | 0:32 | 1:05 | 3 | 5 |