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Ice Lab

Fri, Mar 19, 2021·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto

Calgary Flames 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3

Away

Calgary Flames

4

Final

Home

Toronto Maple Leafs

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 77% of the time.

TOR winsCGY wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:19Goal by Tkachuk (Nesterov, Lindholm)+16 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Bogosian, Tavares, Galchenyuk, Nylander, Dermott · CGY Nesterov, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Dube, Välimäki

  3. P1 1:44Holl: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Holl, Hyman, Kerfoot, Mikheyev · CGY Nesterov, Lindholm, Tkachuk, Dube, Välimäki

  4. P1 2:10Shot by Lindholm, saved by Andersen4v5
  5. P1 2:27Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Markstrom4v5
  6. P1 2:35Shot by Monahan, saved by Andersen4v5
  7. P1 5:06Shot by Tavares, saved by Markstrom
  8. P1 7:33Goal by Ryan (Andersson, Lucic)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Tavares, Holl, Galchenyuk, Dermott, Marner · CGY Lucic, Mangiapane, Andersson, Ryan, Välimäki

  9. P1 9:09Shot by Välimäki, saved by Andersen
  10. P1 10:43Shot by Nylander, saved by Markstrom
  11. P1 11:45Shot by Matthews, saved by Markstrom
  12. P1 11:46Shot by Matthews, saved by Markstrom
  13. P1 12:29Shot by Simmonds, saved by Markstrom
  14. P1 12:47Goal by Spezza (Rielly, Simmonds)+14 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, Engvall · CGY Nesterov, Gaudreau, Ritchie, Monahan, Hanifin

  15. P1 13:05Shot by Giordano, saved by Andersen
  16. P1 14:15Shot by Galchenyuk, saved by Markstrom
  17. P1 16:58Shot by Galchenyuk, saved by Markstrom
  18. P1 18:32Shot by Marner, saved by Markstrom
  19. P1 18:32Shot by Marner, saved by Markstrom
  20. P1 18:55Goal by Tanev (Hanifin)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Holl, Hyman, Rielly, Marner, Matthews · CGY Tanev, Lindholm, Hanifin, Tkachuk, Dube

  21. P1 19:35Goal by Kerfoot (Bogosian, Dermott)+15 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Engvall, Mikheyev · CGY Giordano, Backlund, Ritchie, Bennett, Andersson

  22. P1 0:00Period end
  23. P2 0:00Period start
  24. P2 3:32Shot by Bennett, saved by Andersen
  25. P2 3:48Goal by Marner, unassisted+22 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Thornton, Muzzin, Holl, Marner, Matthews · CGY Tanev, Gaudreau, Ritchie, Monahan, Hanifin

  26. P2 4:18Shot by Muzzin, saved by Markstrom
  27. P2 5:17Shot by Mikheyev, saved by Markstrom
  28. P2 6:06Shot by Bennett, saved by Andersen
  29. P2 6:15Shot by Ryan, saved by Andersen
  30. P2 6:21Shot by Tanev, saved by Andersen
  31. P2 7:15Välimäki: Roughing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Spezza, Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Engvall · CGY Gaudreau, Ritchie, Monahan, Andersson, Välimäki

  32. P2 7:33Shot by Ryan, saved by Andersen5v4
  33. P2 8:48Shot by Nylander, saved by Markstrom5v4
  34. P2 9:02Shot by Backlund, saved by Andersen5v4
  35. P2 9:19Shot by Hyman, saved by Markstrom
  36. P2 9:25Shot by Nylander, saved by Markstrom
  37. P2 10:28Tkachuk: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Engvall, Mikheyev · CGY Nesterov, Lindholm, Andersson, Tkachuk, Dube

  38. P2 10:28Holl: Fighting (5 min)5v4

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Engvall, Mikheyev · CGY Nesterov, Lindholm, Andersson, Tkachuk, Dube

  39. P2 11:08Shot by Nylander, saved by Markstrom
  40. P2 12:30Mikheyev: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Muzzin, Bogosian, Hyman, Kerfoot, Mikheyev · CGY Nesterov, Gaudreau, Ritchie, Monahan, Välimäki

  41. P2 12:33Goal by Giordano (Andersson, Backlund)4v5+22 pts WP

    On ice: TOR Spezza, Muzzin, Bogosian, Hyman · CGY Giordano, Lucic, Backlund, Mangiapane, Andersson

  42. P2 15:26Shot by Giordano, saved by Andersen
  43. P2 18:34Shot by Lucic, saved by Andersen
  44. P2 19:42Tavares: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Bogosian, Tavares, Holl, Galchenyuk, Matthews · CGY Tanev, Lindholm, Hanifin, Tkachuk, Dube

  45. P2 0:00Period end4v5
  46. P3 0:00Period start
  47. P3 3:21Shot by Brodie, saved by Markstrom
  48. P3 4:17Shot by Tavares, saved by Markstrom
  49. P3 4:51Shot by Galchenyuk, saved by Markstrom
  50. P3 7:33Shot by Spezza, saved by Markstrom
  51. P3 7:33Backlund: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Thornton, Spezza, Simmonds, Bogosian, Dermott · CGY Lucic, Backlund, Tanev, Mangiapane, Hanifin

  52. P3 9:46Shot by Backlund, saved by Andersen
  53. P3 12:06Ryan: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: TOR Brodie, Hyman, Rielly, Marner, Matthews · CGY Giordano, Leivo, Bennett, Andersson, Ryan

  54. P3 12:50Shot by Matthews, saved by Markstrom5v4
  55. P3 14:05Shot by Brodie, saved by Markstrom5v4
  56. P3 16:32Shot by Lucic, saved by Andersen
  57. P3 19:10Shot by Marner, saved by Markstrom6v5
  58. P3 19:23Shot by Nylander, saved by Markstrom6v5
  59. P3 0:00Period end6v5
  60. P3 0:00Final