Mon, Apr 5, 2021·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Calgary Flames 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 06 | 212 | 312 | 530 |
| CGY | 010 | 19 | 210 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:10TORJason SpezzaAssists: Alexander Kerfoot, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.29 xG1–0
- P2 7:53TORAuston MatthewsAssists: William Nylander, TJ Brodie · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–0
- P2 18:06CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Noah Hanifin, Elias Lindholm · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 4:17CGYMikael BacklundAssists: Sam Bennett · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–2
- P3 7:13TORWayne SimmondsAssists: Pierre Engvall · Tip-in, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 10:05CGYMikael BacklundSHAssists: Elias Lindholm · Tip-in, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 10:50TORAuston MatthewsPPGWGAssists: John Tavares, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.41 xG4–3
- P3 12:10TORJohn TavaresAssists: Jake Muzzin, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.14 xG5–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 16:13CGYNikita Nesterov: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:39CGYNikita Nesterov: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 13:58TORWayne Simmonds: Interference2 min
- P3 15:43CGYAndrew Mangiapane: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Monahan won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Engvall – Mikheyev7:51
xG 0.68–0.18 (79%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Hyman – Marner – Matthews12:51
xG 0.53–0.37 (59%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Tavares – Galchenyuk – Nylander11:41
xG 0.31–0.81 (28%)attempts 7–15goals 1–0
- Thornton – Spezza – Kerfoot10:11
xG 0.70–1.30 (35%)attempts 9–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly16:29
xG 0.83–0.69 (55%)attempts 18–15goals 2–1
- Bogosian – Dermott12:40
xG 1.11–1.44 (44%)attempts 10–17goals 1–1
- Muzzin – Holl17:11
xG 0.38–0.72 (35%)attempts 10–15goals 1–0
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestGaudreau – Ritchie – Monahan9:24
xG 0.72–0.18 (80%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Lindholm – Tkachuk – Dube8:02
xG 0.49–0.13 (79%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Nordstrom – Bennett – Ryan5:42
xG 0.93–0.78 (54%)attempts 8–7goals 0–2
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Mangiapane3:20
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStone – Nesterov12:57
xG 0.96–0.55 (63%)attempts 11–17goals 1–1
- Giordano – Andersson17:03
xG 0.78–0.62 (56%)attempts 18–9goals 0–2
- Tanev – Hanifin16:21
xG 0.64–0.89 (42%)attempts 13–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).