Sat, Oct 23, 2021·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Colorado Avalanche 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 16 | 110 | 16 | 05 | 3 | 427 |
| TBL | 012 | 112 | 27 | 01 | 2 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:02COLGabriel LandeskogAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Bowen Byram · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 6:34TBLMathieu JosephAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Alex Killorn · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 11:51COLMikko RantanenAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar · Snap, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 3:44TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh · Tip-in, 0.22 xG2–2
- P3 9:50COLNathan MacKinnonPPAssists: Cale Makar, Gabriel Landeskog · Slap, 0.04 xG3–2
- P3 17:25TBLBrayden PointAssists: Victor Hedman, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. TBL Victor Hedman scored
- 2. COL Nathan MacKinnon stopped
- 3. TBL Brayden Point stopped
- 4. COL Mikko Rantanen scored
- 5. TBL Ross Colton stopped
- 6. COL Andre Burakovsky stopped
- 7. TBL Steven Stamkos scored
- 8. COL Gabriel Landeskog scored
- 9. TBL Corey Perry stopped
- 10. COL Nazem Kadri stopped
- 11. TBL Anthony Cirelli stopped
- 12. COL Cale Makar scored
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:36TBLOndrej Palat: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:46TBLMikhail Sergachev: Holding2 min
- P1 11:39COLAndre Burakovsky: Interference2 min
- P1 13:42COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:30TBLAlex Killorn: Interference2 min
- P2 7:06TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 12:23TBLAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P2 13:45COLTyson Jost: Interference2 min
- P2 19:33COLMikko Rantanen: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:33TBLAlex Killorn: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:45TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestLandeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen13:45
xG 0.43–0.27 (62%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
- Kadri – Compher – Jost3:19
xG 0.04–0.07 (38%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Helm – Jost – O'Connor3:00
xG 0.05–0.09 (35%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Kadri – Burakovsky – Compher4:32
xG 0.00–0.14 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJohnson – Byram2:40
xG 0.45–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Makar – Byram13:43
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 6–12goals 1–1
- Johnson – Murray9:42
xG 0.05–0.39 (11%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Colton7:33
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0
- Bellemare – Katchouk – Raddysh5:39
xG 0.13–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli9:57
xG 0.30–0.37 (45%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Stamkos – Palat – Point11:29
xG 0.47–0.75 (39%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:03
xG 0.51–0.34 (60%)attempts 12–5goals 1–2
- Sustr – Sergachev5:53
xG 0.25–0.10 (72%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Sergachev – Rutta2:21
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).