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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 23, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 7

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

Pittsburgh Penguins

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR11601003129
PIT110411212733

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 11:53PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Mark Friedman · Deflected, 0.09 xG0–1
  2. P1 12:44TORJason SpezzaAssists: Pierre Engvall, Wayne Simmonds · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P2 1:38PITMike MathesonGWGAssists: Kasperi Kapanen · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG1–2
  4. P2 1:53PITJason ZuckerAssists: Danton Heinen · Snap, 0.09 xG1–3
  5. P2 11:01PITDrew O'ConnorAssists: Danton Heinen, Marcus Pettersson · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–4
  6. P2 13:59PITMarcus PetterssonAssists: Evan Rodrigues, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–5
  7. P3 0:20PITBrian BoyleAssists: Dominik Simon · Snap, 0.11 xG1–6
  8. P3 2:24PITEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Mike Matheson, Kasperi Kapanen · Snap, 0.11 xG1–7
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 5:07TORJason Spezza: Interference2 min
  2. P1 13:59PITMark Friedman: Slashing2 min
  3. P2 5:18TORAlexander Kerfoot: Holding2 min
  4. P2 11:21PITJake Guentzel: Hooking2 min
  5. P2 16:29TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
  6. P3 1:17TORMichael Bunting: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
  7. P3 5:25TORMichael Bunting: Elbowing2 min
  8. P3 13:16PITBrian Boyle: Fighting5 min
  9. P3 13:16TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
  10. P3 13:16TORWayne Simmonds: Slashing2 min
  11. P3 13:16PITMark Friedman: Embellishment2 min
  12. P3 18:55PITDrew O'Connor: Tripping2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0PIT
48% to win52% to win
← TOR attackPIT attack →
  1. P1 20:00Blueger won the faceoff against Matthews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORPIT
29Shots on goal33
2.3Expected goals3.4
60Shot attempts49
22Faceoffs won39
3Power plays5
17Penalty minutes13
20Hits33
8Blocked shots17
9Giveaways3
7Takeaways11

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestSpezza – Simmonds – Engvall3:46

    xG 0.44–0.02 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0

  2. Ritchie – Marner – Matthews7:58

    xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0

  3. Nylander – Bunting – Matthews5:22

    xG 0.14–0.17 (45%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0

  4. Tavares – Kerfoot – Marner3:06

    xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. Muzzin – Liljegren5:42

    xG 0.03–0.04 (43%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0

  2. Muzzin – Holl9:55

    xG 0.57–0.60 (49%)attempts 16–10goals 1–4

  3. Brodie – Rielly12:41

    xG 0.31–0.45 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 0–1

Pittsburgh Penguins

Forward lines

  1. bestZucker – Heinen – O'Connor9:18

    xG 0.97–0.24 (80%)attempts 9–14goals 3–0

  2. Guentzel – Kapanen – Rodrigues8:18

    xG 0.61–0.07 (89%)attempts 14–2goals 2–0

  3. Boyle – Lafferty – Simon7:13

    xG 0.23–0.08 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0

  4. Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese13:38

    xG 0.27–0.48 (36%)attempts 4–17goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestPettersson – Friedman9:20

    xG 0.65–0.08 (89%)attempts 9–6goals 5–0

  2. Matheson – Pettersson2:41

    xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0

  3. Matheson – Ruhwedel9:54

    xG 0.56–0.47 (54%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

PIT 3.4 xGTOR 2.3 xG
01234P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

PITTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 31/100 · #943 of 1312 this seasonSwing 1.06 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50PIT 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).