Skip to content
Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 23, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Pittsburgh Penguins 7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 69% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:01Shot by Rodrigues, saved by Campbell
  3. P1 2:57Shot by Matthews, saved by Jarry
  4. P1 3:18Shot by Kapanen, saved by Campbell
  5. P1 5:07Spezza: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Boyle, Matheson, Ruhwedel, Lafferty, Simon · TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, Engvall

  6. P1 5:45Shot by Zucker, saved by Campbell5v4
  7. P1 7:11Shot by Pettersson, saved by Campbell
  8. P1 7:51Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Campbell
  9. P1 8:53Shot by Zucker, saved by Campbell
  10. P1 9:10Shot by Muzzin, saved by Jarry
  11. P1 9:57Shot by Holl, saved by Jarry
  12. P1 11:23Shot by Kapanen, saved by Campbell
  13. P1 11:36Shot by Rodrigues, saved by Campbell
  14. P1 11:53Goal by O'Connor (Pettersson, Friedman)+22 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Zucker, Pettersson, Friedman, Heinen, O'Connor · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Kase, Kampf

  15. P1 12:34Shot by Simmonds, saved by Jarry
  16. P1 12:39Shot by Spezza, saved by Jarry
  17. P1 12:40Shot by Simmonds, saved by Jarry
  18. P1 12:44Goal by Spezza (Engvall, Simmonds)+22 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Boyle, Matheson, Ruhwedel, Kapanen, Simon · TOR Spezza, Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Engvall

  19. P1 13:05Shot by Matthews, saved by Jarry
  20. P1 13:59Friedman: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Guentzel, Kapanen, Pettersson, Friedman, Rodrigues · TOR Tavares, Nylander, Bunting, Liljegren, Sandin

  21. P1 14:23Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry4v5
  22. P1 14:36Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry4v5
  23. P1 14:48Shot by Matthews, saved by Jarry4v5
  24. P1 15:41Shot by Engvall, saved by Jarry4v5
  25. P1 15:46Shot by Bunting, saved by Jarry4v5
  26. P1 16:56Shot by Marner, saved by Jarry
  27. P1 17:33Shot by Rodrigues, saved by Campbell
  28. P1 17:44Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry
  29. P1 18:56Shot by Liljegren, saved by Jarry
  30. P1 0:00Period end
  31. P2 0:00Period start
  32. P2 0:28Shot by Marner, saved by Jarry
  33. P2 0:46Shot by Matthews, saved by Jarry
  34. P2 1:38Goal by Matheson (Kapanen)+22 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Matheson, Ruhwedel, Guentzel, Kapanen, Rodrigues · TOR Muzzin, Tavares, Holl, Nylander, Bunting

  35. P2 1:53Goal by Zucker (Heinen)+13 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Zucker, Pettersson, Friedman, Heinen, O'Connor · TOR Kerfoot, Kase, Liljegren, Kampf, Sandin

  36. P2 2:06Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Campbell
  37. P2 4:58Shot by Boyle, saved by Campbell
  38. P2 5:18Kerfoot: Holding (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Boyle, Matheson, Ruhwedel, Lafferty, Simon · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Kase, Kampf

  39. P2 5:30Shot by Kapanen, saved by Campbell5v4
  40. P2 7:08Shot by Simon, saved by Campbell5v4
  41. P2 7:32Shot by Matheson, saved by Campbell
  42. P2 8:36Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry
  43. P2 9:08Shot by Holl, saved by Jarry
  44. P2 9:18Shot by Muzzin, saved by Jarry
  45. P2 9:21Shot by Matthews, saved by Jarry
  46. P2 11:01Goal by O'Connor (Heinen, Pettersson)+7 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Zucker, Pettersson, Friedman, Heinen, O'Connor · TOR Muzzin, Holl, Kerfoot, Kase, Kampf

  47. P2 11:21Guentzel: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Matheson, Ruhwedel, Guentzel, Kapanen, Rodrigues · TOR Tavares, Nylander, Bunting, Liljegren, Sandin

  48. P2 11:32Shot by Rielly, saved by Jarry4v5
  49. P2 11:59Shot by Matthews, saved by Jarry4v5
  50. P2 12:26Shot by Marino, saved by Campbell4v5
  51. P2 13:31Shot by Tavares, saved by Jarry
  52. P2 13:59Goal by Pettersson (Rodrigues, Guentzel)+2 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Guentzel, Kapanen, Pettersson, Friedman, Rodrigues · TOR Muzzin, Simmonds, Holl, Kerfoot, Kampf

  53. P2 16:29Marner: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Dumoulin, Blueger, McGinn, Marino, Aston-Reese · TOR Muzzin, Ritchie, Marner, Matthews, Liljegren

  54. P2 17:58Shot by Kerfoot, saved by Jarry5v4
  55. P2 18:43Shot by O'Connor, saved by Campbell
  56. P2 0:00Period end
  57. P3 0:00Period start
  58. P3 0:20Goal by Boyle (Simon)+1 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Boyle, Pettersson, Friedman, Lafferty, Simon · TOR Spezza, Simmonds, Brodie, Rielly, Ritchie

  59. P3 0:56Shot by Nylander, saved by Jarry
  60. P3 1:17Bunting: Interference goalkeeper (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Dumoulin, Blueger, McGinn, Marino, Aston-Reese · TOR Holl, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Sandin

  61. P3 1:29Shot by Rodrigues, saved by Hutchinson5v4
  62. P3 2:24Goal by Rodrigues (Matheson, Kapanen)5v40 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Zucker, Matheson, Guentzel, Kapanen, Rodrigues · TOR Brodie, Rielly, Kerfoot, Engvall

  63. P3 3:35Shot by Zucker, saved by Hutchinson
  64. P3 3:37Shot by O'Connor, saved by Hutchinson
  65. P3 5:17Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Hutchinson
  66. P3 5:25Bunting: Elbowing (2 min)6v5

    On ice: PIT Dumoulin, Blueger, McGinn, Guentzel, Marino, Aston-Reese · TOR Muzzin, Nylander, Bunting, Matthews, Liljegren

  67. P3 10:22Shot by O'Connor, saved by Hutchinson
  68. P3 11:05Shot by Liljegren, saved by Jarry
  69. P3 12:15Shot by Nylander, saved by Jarry
  70. P3 13:16Boyle: Fighting (5 min)

    On ice: PIT Boyle, Pettersson, Friedman, Lafferty, Simon · TOR Spezza, Muzzin, Simmonds, Ritchie, Liljegren

  71. P3 13:16Simmonds: Fighting (5 min)4v5

    On ice: PIT Boyle, Pettersson, Friedman, Lafferty, Simon · TOR Spezza, Muzzin, Simmonds, Ritchie, Liljegren

  72. P3 13:16Simmonds: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Boyle, Pettersson, Friedman, Lafferty, Simon · TOR Spezza, Muzzin, Simmonds, Ritchie, Liljegren

  73. P3 13:16Friedman: Embellishment (2 min)5v4

    On ice: PIT Boyle, Pettersson, Friedman, Lafferty, Simon · TOR Spezza, Muzzin, Simmonds, Ritchie, Liljegren

  74. P3 14:16Shot by Heinen, saved by Hutchinson
  75. P3 15:28Shot by Zucker, saved by Hutchinson
  76. P3 17:02Shot by O'Connor, saved by Hutchinson
  77. P3 17:32Shot by Guentzel, saved by Hutchinson
  78. P3 18:55O'Connor: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Zucker, Matheson, Pettersson, Heinen, O'Connor · TOR Muzzin, Tavares, Engvall, Kase, Liljegren

  79. P3 19:15Shot by McGinn, saved by Hutchinson4v5
  80. P3 0:00Period end4v5
  81. P3 0:00Final