Mon, Oct 25, 2021·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 1, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 114 | 011 | 011 | 136 |
| BUF | 19 | 13 | 313 | 525 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:41BUFVictor OlofssonAssists: Tage Thompson, Robert Hagg · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 18:26TBLAlex KillornAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–1
- P2 19:22BUFDrake CaggiulaGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 4:25BUFVinnie HinostrozaUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–3
- P3 14:25BUFRobert HaggENAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.43 xG1–4
- P3 17:30BUFVictor OlofssonENAssists: Rasmus Asplund, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.71 xG1–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:33BUFJohn Hayden: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:33TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:07BUFRasmus Asplund: Holding2 min
- P2 4:00BUFColin Miller: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:52TBLErik Cernak: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Girgensons won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Joseph – Cirelli11:57
xG 0.68–0.07 (91%)attempts 19–3goals 1–0
- Bellemare – Katchouk – Raddysh9:47
xG 0.51–0.08 (86%)attempts 11–5goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Point8:51
xG 0.51–0.51 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–2
- Perry – Colton – Barré-Boulet8:26
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:52
xG 0.76–0.30 (71%)attempts 14–8goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Sustr4:07
xG 0.13–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Sustr – Sergachev7:35
xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Hinostroza – Cozens10:19
xG 0.39–0.17 (69%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen8:09
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Caggiula10:47
xG 0.20–0.61 (24%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Thompson11:14
xG 0.32–0.95 (25%)attempts 8–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Butcher – Bryson2:08
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Hagg14:00
xG 0.54–0.52 (51%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
- Miller – Bryson13:00
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).