Tue, Oct 26, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 39 | 29 | 531 |
| PIT | 011 | 012 | 16 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:31TBLBrayden PointAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 11:18TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Alex Barré-Boulet, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 11:28TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Steven Stamkos, Mathieu Joseph · Snap, 0.11 xG3–0
- P3 16:55TBLMikhail SergachevENUnassisted · Snap, 0.66 xG4–0
- P3 17:43PITJason ZuckerPPAssists: Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.29 xG4–1
- P3 18:55TBLAlex KillornENAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 4:39TBLRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:39PITSam Lafferty: Roughing2 min
- P1 4:39TBLRyan McDonagh: Roughing2 min
- P1 7:34PITSam Lafferty: Fighting5 min
- P1 7:34TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 12:20TBLMikhail Sergachev: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:44PITBrock McGinn: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:48TBLVictor Hedman: Cross checking2 min
- P2 19:33PITMarcus Pettersson: Holding2 min
- P3 17:28TBLAlex Barré-Boulet: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Blueger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Point – Cirelli10:51
xG 0.36–0.11 (76%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Perry – Maroon – Colton9:55
xG 0.21–0.20 (52%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Palat – Joseph9:58
xG 0.18–0.26 (40%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
- Bellemare – Raddysh – Barré-Boulet7:07
xG 0.23–0.52 (31%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcDonagh – Cernak12:08
xG 0.54–0.11 (83%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Sustr – Sergachev3:56
xG 0.19–0.05 (79%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sergachev7:32
xG 0.23–0.13 (65%)attempts 3–4goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Lafferty – Simon5:43
xG 0.37–0.13 (73%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Guentzel – Heinen – Rodrigues2:25
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese12:03
xG 0.35–0.37 (49%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Zucker – Heinen – O'Connor5:28
xG 0.17–0.22 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestDumoulin – Marino12:03
xG 0.75–0.45 (63%)attempts 12–9goals 0–2
- Matheson – Marino3:01
xG 0.03–0.04 (42%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Matheson – Ruhwedel10:23
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).