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Ice Lab

Tue, Oct 26, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 1

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 65% of the time.

PIT winsTBL wins

Who was on the ice

Model-based

Line matchups and every shift of the game.

Line matchups

PIT forward lines and defence pairs (rows) against TBL's (columns) at 5-on-5. Darker cells shared more ice; the second number is xG for–against in that time. Click a cell to highlight it below.

Killorn–Point–CirelliStamkos–Palat–JosephPerry–Maroon–ColtonBellemare–Raddysh–Barré-BouletStamkos–Palat–PointMcDonagh–CernakHedman–RuttaHedman–SergachevSustr–SergachevHedman–CernakMcDonagh–RuttaCernak–SergachevSergachev–RuttaHedman–SustrSustr–Rutta
Blueger–McGinn–Aston-Reese4:420.08–0.232:080.02–0.071:410.16–0.080:350.00–0.000:340.00–0.003:330.00–0.081:540.22–0.002:140.00–0.170:350.00–0.010:570.02–0.030:310.00–0.000:450.00–0.000:510.04–0.09
Guentzel–Kapanen–Rodrigues2:420.03–0.082:310.06–0.002:130.04–0.023:220.04–0.231:540.09–0.000:570.04–0.061:270.03–0.020:460.00–0.000:310.04–0.000:360.00–0.04
Boyle–Lafferty–Simon0:400.00–0.002:310.00–0.102:070.37–0.001:070.00–0.001:220.00–0.070:500.00–0.040:370.00–0.000:510.37–0.000:530.00–0.03
Zucker–Heinen–O'Connor1:050.00–0.011:220.00–0.111:160.00–0.021:200.15–0.000:430.00–0.021:120.00–0.000:510.02–0.080:490.12–0.001:080.00–0.12
Zucker–Kapanen–O'Connor0:460.00–0.000:450.00–0.001:120.00–0.171:480.00–0.17
Guentzel–Heinen–Rodrigues1:290.00–0.000:330.00–0.001:300.03–0.000:310.00–0.00
Heinen–Simon–O'Connor0:450.19–0.070:450.19–0.07
Dumoulin–Marino3:480.00–0.252:470.14–0.002:210.16–0.001:210.39–0.001:500.02–0.161:510.16–0.003:280.03–0.100:450.02–0.081:030.14–0.031:410.37–0.00
Matheson–Ruhwedel1:470.00–0.003:200.06–0.001:190.00–0.002:180.00–0.174:540.08–0.171:290.02–0.001:170.00–0.001:230.00–0.000:500.00–0.00
Pettersson–Friedman2:130.00–0.011:240.00–0.113:010.04–0.101:370.12–0.062:200.00–0.082:080.00–0.011:520.04–0.061:340.00–0.060:450.12–0.001:010.02–0.180:400.00–0.00
Matheson–Marino1:280.03–0.040:320.00–0.001:040.03–0.000:360.00–0.040:340.00–0.00
Ruhwedel–Friedman1:110.00–0.050:480.00–0.000:330.00–0.000:470.06–0.140:530.00–0.03
Matheson–Pettersson0:480.00–0.010:430.00–0.000:320.00–0.000:430.00–0.00
Pettersson–Marino1:060.00–0.000:390.00–0.000:310.00–0.00
Ruhwedel–Pettersson0:460.04–0.00
Dumoulin–Pettersson0:370.00–0.07
Matheson–Friedman0:370.01–0.00
Shift chart

Every shift, one row per player.

P1P2P3EndAston-Reese FMcGinn FBlueger FRodrigues FKapanen FGuentzel FO'Connor FZucker FHeinen FBoyle FLafferty FSimon FMarino DDumoulin DRuhwedel DMatheson DFriedman DPettersson DJarry GKillorn FPoint FCirelli FJoseph FPalat FStamkos FMaroon FColton FPerry FBarré-Boulet FRaddysh FBellemare FHedman DSergachev DCernak DMcDonagh DRutta DSustr DVasilevskiy G
PITTBLFull-height lines are goals; short ticks at the top are shots. Hover to see who was on the ice.

Shift totals

Victor HedmanTBL2926:170:542:0272
John MarinoPIT2925:480:532:1047
Erik CernakTBL2523:160:562:3615
Ryan McDonaghTBL2521:590:532:2014
Mikhail SergachevTBL2521:360:522:0221
Jake GuentzelPIT2021:021:032:4351
Mike MathesonPIT2521:000:501:3433
Kasperi KapanenPIT2020:571:032:4342
Marcus PetterssonPIT2419:440:491:4034
Evan RodriguesPIT2119:400:562:0652
Alex KillornTBL2418:390:471:4063
Brian DumoulinPIT2318:370:491:2426
Anthony CirelliTBL2318:120:471:4053
Brayden PointTBL1917:090:542:0950
Steven StamkosTBL2016:570:511:1452
Mathieu JosephTBL2116:430:481:2044
Jan RuttaTBL1916:430:533:3011
Jason ZuckerPIT1716:370:592:1042
Ondrej PalatTBL1916:320:521:1440
Chad RuhwedelPIT2116:180:471:3411
Teddy BluegerPIT2116:080:461:2915
Mark FriedmanPIT2115:400:451:4001
Brock McGinnPIT2115:160:441:2415
Zachary Aston-ReesePIT1915:130:481:3215
Corey PerryTBL1714:200:512:2350
Pierre-Edouard BellemareTBL1813:260:451:2914
Patrick MaroonTBL1513:200:532:2330
Ross ColtonTBL1513:140:532:2320
Drew O'ConnorPIT1512:500:511:1821
Danton HeinenPIT1712:290:441:1432
Brian BoylePIT1511:160:451:2903
Dominik SimonPIT1510:120:411:0620
Alex Barré-BouletTBL159:520:391:2320
Taylor RaddyshTBL148:490:381:2310
Sam LaffertyPIT128:460:441:3302
Andrej SustrTBL96:410:451:0500