Sat, Nov 6, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Ottawa Senators 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 14 | 118 | 311 | 533 |
| OTT | 013 | 25 | 19 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:27TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 1:39OTTConnor BrownUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 10:06TBLJan RuttaAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P2 19:17OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Josh Norris · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 7:32TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Mathieu Joseph · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–2
- P3 18:19TBLOndrej PalatGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 19:26TBLAnthony CirelliENAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–2
- P3 19:44OTTLogan ShawAssists: Victor Mete, Parker Kelly · Tip-in, 0.08 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:11OTTDylan Gambrell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:22TBLJan Rutta: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:16TBLCorey Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge2 min
- P2 14:47OTTJosh Norris: Interference2 min
- P3 1:47TBLAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:07TBLJan Rutta: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Norris
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Point – Cirelli13:44
xG 1.11–0.25 (82%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph10:12
xG 0.68–0.61 (52%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Raddysh – Colton – Barré-Boulet7:12
xG 0.05–0.44 (10%)attempts 5–7goals 0–1
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare6:59
xG 0.11–0.74 (13%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Cernak7:35
xG 0.69–0.16 (82%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
- Claesson – Cernak4:37
xG 0.48–0.19 (71%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- McDonagh – Foote4:35
xG 0.73–0.48 (60%)attempts 8–4goals 0–1
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestShaw – Gambrell – Kelly3:58
xG 0.40–0.12 (78%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Tierney – Sanford – Stützle6:22
xG 0.26–0.09 (73%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk11:09
xG 0.76–0.68 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Tierney – Kelly – Stützle2:22
xG 0.00–0.01 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Zub2:02
xG 0.67–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Holden – Brown12:05
xG 0.39–0.29 (57%)attempts 8–10goals 1–1
- Mete – Zub11:32
xG 0.37–0.50 (43%)attempts 11–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).