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Ice Lab

Sat, Nov 6, 2021·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa

Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Ottawa Senators 3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 79% of the time.

OTT winsTBL wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 1:01Shot by Formenton, saved by Elliott
  3. P1 1:11Shot by Brown, saved by Elliott
  4. P1 2:23Shot by Holden, saved by Elliott
  5. P1 3:10Shot by Palat, saved by Murray
  6. P1 3:55Shot by Hedman, saved by Murray
  7. P1 4:11Gambrell: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Holden, Shaw, Brown, Sanford, Gambrell · TBL Claesson, Cernak, Raddysh, Colton, Barré-Boulet

  8. P1 4:27Goal by Hedman (Stamkos, Point)4v5+11 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Holden, Brown, Paul, Formenton · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Point, Barré-Boulet

  9. P1 7:20Shot by Brown, saved by Elliott
  10. P1 10:12Shot by Paul, saved by Elliott
  11. P1 12:19Shot by Kelly, saved by Elliott
  12. P1 12:56Shot by Chabot, saved by Elliott
  13. P1 13:15Shot by Brown, saved by Elliott
  14. P1 13:22Rutta: Hooking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Brown, Paul, Chabot, Tkachuk, Zub · TBL Killorn, McDonagh, Stamkos, Joseph, Rutta

  15. P1 15:02Shot by Brown, saved by Elliott5v4
  16. P1 16:17Shot by Raddysh, saved by Murray
  17. P1 16:53Shot by Stützle, saved by Elliott
  18. P1 16:56Shot by Tierney, saved by Elliott
  19. P1 17:22Shot by Batherson, saved by Elliott
  20. P1 17:24Shot by Norris, saved by Elliott
  21. P1 0:00Period end
  22. P2 0:00Period start
  23. P2 0:18Shot by Palat, saved by Murray
  24. P2 1:39Goal by Brown, unassisted+18 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Brown, Paul, Chabot, Zaitsev, Formenton · TBL Killorn, McDonagh, Stamkos, Joseph, Foote

  25. P2 2:14Shot by Hedman, saved by Murray
  26. P2 3:42Shot by Maroon, saved by Murray
  27. P2 3:47Shot by Claesson, saved by Murray
  28. P2 5:16Perry: Delaying game unsuccessful challenge (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Brown, Paul, Mete, Formenton, Zub · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Joseph, Foote

  29. P2 5:31Shot by Joseph, saved by Murray5v4
  30. P2 7:24Shot by Perry, saved by Murray
  31. P2 7:34Shot by Formenton, saved by Elliott
  32. P2 8:44Shot by Shaw, saved by Elliott
  33. P2 9:16Shot by Maroon, saved by Murray
  34. P2 9:39Shot by Hedman, saved by Murray
  35. P2 9:57Shot by Hedman, saved by Murray
  36. P2 10:06Goal by Rutta (Palat, Point)+22 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Holden, Brown, Brown, Paul, Formenton · TBL Hedman, Palat, Point, Cirelli, Rutta

  37. P2 10:18Shot by Colton, saved by Murray
  38. P2 10:25Shot by Hedman, saved by Murray
  39. P2 12:02Shot by Claesson, saved by Murray
  40. P2 12:33Shot by Maroon, saved by Murray
  41. P2 13:54Shot by Stamkos, saved by Murray
  42. P2 13:55Shot by Raddysh, saved by Murray
  43. P2 14:47Norris: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Chabot, Zaitsev, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Cernak, Joseph

  44. P2 16:15Shot by Cirelli, saved by Murray4v5
  45. P2 16:32Shot by Palat, saved by Murray4v5
  46. P2 19:17Goal by Tkachuk (Batherson, Norris)+26 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Holden, Brown, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk · TBL Killorn, Maroon, McDonagh, Stamkos, Rutta

  47. P2 19:44Shot by Paul, saved by Elliott
  48. P2 0:00Period end
  49. P3 0:00Period start
  50. P3 0:10Shot by Point, saved by Murray
  51. P3 1:24Shot by Killorn, saved by Murray
  52. P3 1:28Shot by Joseph, saved by Murray
  53. P3 1:47Killorn: Cross checking (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Tierney, Brown, Mete, Stützle, Zub · TBL Killorn, McDonagh, Colton, Barré-Boulet, Foote

  54. P3 2:42Shot by Batherson, saved by Elliott5v4
  55. P3 3:35Shot by Batherson, saved by Elliott5v4
  56. P3 5:31Shot by Stützle, saved by Elliott
  57. P3 6:30Shot by Stützle, saved by Elliott
  58. P3 7:31Shot by Killorn, saved by Murray
  59. P3 7:32Goal by Stamkos (Killorn, Joseph)+32 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Brown, Paul, Mete, Formenton, Zub · TBL Killorn, Stamkos, Hedman, Cernak, Joseph

  60. P3 7:51Shot by Brown, saved by Elliott
  61. P3 9:07Rutta: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: OTT Shaw, Tierney, Mete, Tkachuk, Zub · TBL Hedman, Palat, Point, Cirelli, Rutta

  62. P3 12:10Shot by Cernak, saved by Murray
  63. P3 12:18Shot by Palat, saved by Murray
  64. P3 13:46Shot by Hedman, saved by Murray
  65. P3 13:55Shot by Kelly, saved by Elliott
  66. P3 15:27Shot by Sanford, saved by Elliott
  67. P3 16:06Shot by Palat, saved by Murray
  68. P3 16:59Shot by Formenton, saved by Elliott
  69. P3 18:19Goal by Palat (Cirelli, McDonagh)+5 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Chabot, Norris, Batherson, Tkachuk, Stützle · TBL McDonagh, Hedman, Palat, Point, Cirelli

  70. P3 19:26Goal by Cirelli (Palat, Point)6v50 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Brown, Sanford, Chabot, Norris, Batherson, Stützle · TBL McDonagh, Hedman, Palat, Point, Cirelli

  71. P3 19:44Goal by Shaw (Mete, Kelly)0 pts WP

    On ice: OTT Shaw, Mete, Gambrell, Kelly, Zub · TBL Claesson, Raddysh, Colton, Barré-Boulet, Foote

  72. P3 0:00Period end
  73. P3 0:00Final