Tue, Nov 16, 2021·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Buffalo Sabres 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 010 | 26 | 03 | 219 |
| PIT | 014 | 012 | 120 | 146 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:28BUFColin MillerAssists: Drake Caggiula, Dylan Cozens · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 8:54BUFKyle OkposoGWGAssists: Zemgus Girgensons, Rasmus Dahlin · Tip-in, 0.13 xG2–0
- P3 5:59PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Deflected, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:13BUFJacob Bryson: Interference2 min
- P2 3:14PITDanton Heinen: High sticking2 min
- P2 12:14BUFCody Eakin: Slashing2 min
- P2 18:28BUFMark Pysyk: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:28PITBryan Rust: Holding2 min
- P3 2:30PITMarcus Pettersson: Interference2 min
- P3 5:10BUFAnders Bjork: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:47PITZachary Aston-Reese: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:47BUFRobert Hagg: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:47PITZachary Aston-Reese: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:24PITKris Letang: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHinostroza – Caggiula – Cozens8:27
xG 0.70–0.56 (56%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Skinner – Asplund – Thompson8:49
xG 0.32–0.21 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hinostroza – Caggiula2:07
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Hayden – Bjork – Ruotsalainen6:22
xG 0.00–0.09 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Dahlin11:33
xG 0.53–0.33 (61%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Butcher – Hagg8:54
xG 0.16–0.22 (42%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Miller – Bryson13:54
xG 0.50–0.96 (34%)attempts 9–19goals 1–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Zucker – Kapanen11:26
xG 0.75–0.25 (75%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
- Heinen – Rodrigues – Simon5:52
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Blueger – McGinn – Aston-Reese8:13
xG 0.20–0.13 (60%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel8:07
xG 0.29–0.29 (50%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPettersson – Marino11:30
xG 0.90–0.35 (72%)attempts 15–7goals 0–0
- Letang – Dumoulin15:22
xG 0.54–0.19 (74%)attempts 19–6goals 0–1
- Matheson – Ruhwedel9:02
xG 0.49–0.23 (68%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).