Thu, Feb 10, 2022·Scotiabank Saddledome, Calgary
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Calgary Flames 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 018 | 114 | 116 | 248 |
| CGY | 011 | 49 | 16 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 3:49TORRasmus SandinAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Slap, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 4:13CGYAndrew MangiapaneAssists: Mikael Backlund, Blake Coleman · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–1
- P2 13:03CGYNoah HanifinAssists: Rasmus Andersson, Matthew Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 13:35CGYOliver KylingtonPPGWGAssists: Noah Hanifin, Mikael Backlund · Slap, 0.08 xG1–3
- P2 15:54CGYElias LindholmAssists: Johnny Gaudreau, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
- P3 1:16CGYRasmus AnderssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–5
- P3 5:06TORMichael BuntingAssists: Auston Matthews, Timothy Liljegren · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–5
Penalties (14)
- P1 3:26CGYBlake Coleman: Slashing2 min
- P1 7:30TORJohn Tavares: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 9:01TORTJ Brodie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 14:36TORJustin Holl: Interference2 min
- P1 18:21TORMorgan Rielly: Cross checking2 min
- P1 18:21CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P1 18:21TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
- P2 7:10CGYMikael Backlund: Interference2 min
- P2 13:32TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 10:14CGYErik Gudbranson: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14TORTJ Brodie: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14CGYNikita Zadorov: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:14TORDavid Kampf: Slashing2 min
- P3 12:14CGYSean Monahan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Backlund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews10:34
xG 0.81–0.27 (75%)attempts 18–5goals 1–1
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander7:33
xG 0.59–0.31 (66%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev6:29
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
- Spezza – Engvall – Mikheyev2:16
xG 0.03–0.11 (21%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMuzzin – Holl11:34
xG 0.83–0.44 (65%)attempts 22–13goals 0–2
- Dermott – Liljegren2:13
xG 0.15–0.01 (95%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin4:29
xG 0.25–0.11 (69%)attempts 6–2goals 2–1
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Monahan – Dube6:26
xG 0.34–0.15 (70%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Backlund – Coleman – Mangiapane11:23
xG 0.29–0.38 (43%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Gaudreau – Lindholm – Tkachuk10:37
xG 0.42–0.55 (43%)attempts 13–13goals 3–1
- Lewis – Lucic – Ruzicka9:24
xG 0.01–0.39 (3%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hanifin – Andersson12:31
xG 0.44–0.42 (51%)attempts 11–17goals 2–2
- Gudbranson – Zadorov12:20
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Tanev – Gudbranson2:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CGY's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CGY is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CGY − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).