Sat, Feb 19, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 5, Buffalo Sabres 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 314 | 011 | 211 | 536 |
| BUF | 28 | 17 | 017 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:50BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 3:35COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Cale Makar, Devon Toews · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P1 11:18COLJ.T. CompherAssists: Nicolas Aube-Kubel · Backhand, 0.16 xG2–1
- P1 12:42BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jeff Skinner, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P1 13:02COLNazem KadriAssists: Valeri Nichushkin · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–2
- P2 12:54BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Mattias Samuelsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG3–3
- P3 8:37COLAlex NewhookGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 19:08COLMikko RantanenENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.79 xG5–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 18:44BUFPeyton Krebs: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:40BUFMattias Samuelsson: Interference2 min
- P3 9:11COLErik Johnson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestKadri – Burakovsky – Nichushkin11:19
xG 0.90–0.04 (96%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Landeskog – MacKinnon – Rantanen14:07
xG 0.76–0.30 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 1–1
- Compher – Aube-Kubel – Jost9:21
xG 0.56–0.14 (79%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Compher – Jost – Newhook2:21
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar15:21
xG 1.12–0.43 (72%)attempts 13–10goals 2–2
- Johnson – Murray11:05
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Toews – Girard2:26
xG 0.11–0.03 (77%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Asplund – Mittelstadt10:23
xG 0.67–0.22 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork7:43
xG 0.06–0.12 (34%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson12:36
xG 0.44–0.77 (36%)attempts 9–11goals 2–1
- Olofsson – Krebs – Cozens11:54
xG 0.23–0.90 (21%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Samuelsson12:50
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 11–4goals 1–1
- Pysyk – Fitzgerald2:06
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Bryson12:41
xG 0.19–0.57 (25%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).