Sun, Jan 2, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
San Jose Sharks 5, Pittsburgh Penguins 8
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 90% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 110 | 17 | 310 | 527 |
| PIT | 617 | 08 | 214 | 839 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Marcus Pettersson, Danton Heinen · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 3:12PITJake GuentzelAssists: Bryan Rust, Sidney Crosby · Snap, 0.05 xG0–2
- P1 4:11PITEvan RodriguesAssists: Danton Heinen, Dominik Simon · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–3
- P1 6:09PITBryan RustAssists: Kris Letang, Brian Dumoulin · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–4
- P1 15:33SJSAlexander BarabanovAssists: Timo Meier, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–4
- P1 16:29PITKasper BjorkqvistAssists: Radim Zohorna, Sam Lafferty · Wrist, 0.17 xG1–5
- P1 19:32PITBryan RustGWGAssists: John Marino, Marcus Pettersson · Tip-in, 0.02 xG1–6
- P2 14:27SJSBrent BurnsPPAssists: Nick Bonino, Noah Gregor · Slap, 0.04 xG2–6
- P3 0:20SJSMatt NietoAssists: Jake Middleton, Andrew Cogliano · Slap, 0.06 xG3–6
- P3 3:01SJSJake MiddletonAssists: Erik Karlsson, Timo Meier · Tip-in, 0.09 xG4–6
- P3 4:09SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Timo Meier · Snap, 0.13 xG5–6
- P3 17:59PITEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Kris Letang, Bryan Rust · Snap, 0.09 xG5–7
- P3 19:49PITBryan RustENAssists: Sidney Crosby, Jake Guentzel · Wrist, 0.64 xG5–8
Penalties (5)
- P2 12:31PITDominik Simon: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:18SJSRadim Simek: Holding2 min
- P3 7:11PITDominik Simon: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:25SJSLogan Couture: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:08SJSMatt Nieto: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couture won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Meier – Dahlen3:08
xG 0.15–0.05 (74%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Couture – Hertl – Meier4:38
xG 0.42–0.36 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 2–0
- Hertl – Gregor – Barabanov3:18
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Pederson – Viel – Gadjovich7:46
xG 0.00–0.12 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Burns – Karlsson2:43
xG 0.05–0.05 (46%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Burns – Simek13:49
xG 0.53–0.90 (37%)attempts 8–15goals 1–1
- Karlsson – Middleton16:27
xG 0.76–1.33 (36%)attempts 21–27goals 2–1
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestHeinen – Rodrigues – Simon11:49
xG 1.01–0.38 (73%)attempts 18–13goals 2–2
- McGinn – Aston-Reese – O'Connor12:08
xG 0.93–0.45 (67%)attempts 15–14goals 0–1
- Crosby – Rust – Guentzel14:42
xG 1.01–0.64 (61%)attempts 18–12goals 3–1
- Lafferty – Bjorkqvist – Zohorna7:45
xG 0.25–0.01 (97%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMatheson – Ruhwedel12:49
xG 1.51–0.31 (83%)attempts 26–5goals 3–1
- Letang – Dumoulin20:05
xG 1.05–0.48 (69%)attempts 18–17goals 1–1
- Pettersson – Marino13:40
xG 0.81–0.70 (53%)attempts 17–18goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 90% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).