Mon, Feb 7, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 113 | 07 | 29 | 02 | 331 |
| TOR | 09 | 210 | 19 | 14 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:08CARNino NiederreiterAssists: Ian Cole, Martin Necas · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 16:16TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.18 xG1–1
- P2 19:37TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Morgan Rielly, Mitch Marner · Slap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 0:08CARTony DeAngeloAssists: Jesper Fast, Jaccob Slavin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–2
- P3 9:23CARDerek StepanAssists: Tony DeAngelo, Steven Lorentz · Wrist, 0.21 xG3–2
- P3 14:12TORMitch MarnerAssists: Timothy Liljegren · Snap, 0.39 xG3–3
- OT 2:51TORMitch MarnerGWGAssists: Morgan Rielly, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:11TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:11CARBrendan Smith: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00CARVincent Trocheck: Interference2 min
- P2 9:56CARBrendan Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:30CARIan Cole: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 1:38CARSebastian Aho: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:54TORMorgan Rielly: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Leivo – Lorentz6:19
xG 0.70–0.01 (99%)attempts 11–1goals 1–0
- Staal – Niederreiter – Fast12:59
xG 0.70–0.35 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Martinook – Aho – Necas12:06
xG 0.69–0.59 (54%)attempts 16–7goals 0–1
- Trocheck – Svechnikov – Jarvis13:06
xG 0.27–0.45 (37%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – DeAngelo17:41
xG 1.07–0.32 (77%)attempts 19–12goals 2–1
- Cole – Smith10:46
xG 0.57–0.31 (64%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Skjei – Pesce20:50
xG 0.74–0.81 (48%)attempts 18–17goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews14:16
xG 1.01–0.36 (74%)attempts 12–13goals 2–0
- Spezza – Simmonds – Engvall6:08
xG 0.23–0.58 (28%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander12:18
xG 0.32–0.74 (30%)attempts 9–13goals 0–2
- Kase – Kampf – Mikheyev11:42
xG 0.01–0.65 (2%)attempts 3–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDermott – Liljegren11:47
xG 0.82–0.35 (70%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Brodie – Holl2:26
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Rielly15:33
xG 0.46–1.02 (31%)attempts 8–18goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).