Tue, Jan 11, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Buffalo Sabres 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 29 | 316 | 111 | 636 |
| BUF | 06 | 06 | 16 | 118 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:16TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Victor Hedman, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:45TBLAnthony CirelliGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–0
- P2 0:27TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–0
- P2 10:21TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Corey Perry, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.11 xG4–0
- P2 14:04TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.07 xG5–0
- P3 5:31BUFVinnie HinostrozaPPAssists: Colin Miller, Will Butcher · Snap, 0.36 xG5–1
- P3 13:57TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman, Alex Killorn · Slap, 0.04 xG6–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 18:28BUFZemgus Girgensons: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 4:26TBLCorey Perry: Slashing2 min
- P2 8:00TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P2 16:21TBLPatrick Maroon: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 17:11BUFDylan Cozens: Interference2 min
- P3 3:41TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Cozens
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestJoseph – Raddysh – Colton9:09
xG 0.60–0.00 (100%)attempts 14–0goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare8:36
xG 0.20–0.04 (84%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Cirelli9:28
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 4–4goals 2–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point7:07
xG 0.42–0.31 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBogosian – Foote16:28
xG 0.79–0.09 (90%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Cernak – Sergachev14:38
xG 0.67–0.34 (66%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta11:33
xG 0.33–0.04 (90%)attempts 12–5goals 2–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- Eakin – Girgensons – Hayden3:03
xG 0.10–0.08 (55%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Girgensons – Asplund3:51
xG 0.09–0.09 (49%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Bjork – Murray2:36
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Girgensons – Murray3:28
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Miller – Butcher7:42
xG 0.05–0.16 (25%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Pysyk – Butcher7:56
xG 0.11–0.24 (32%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Miller – Bryson5:48
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 1–7goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).