Tue, Jan 18, 2022·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Buffalo Sabres 3, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 19 | 012 | 211 | 332 |
| OTT | 015 | 119 | 010 | 144 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:07BUFDylan CozensAssists: Alex Tuch, Will Butcher · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–0
- P2 7:44OTTDrake BathersonPPAssists: Tim Stützle, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.30 xG1–1
- P3 10:03BUFMark JankowskiGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–1
- P3 19:20BUFAlex TuchENAssists: Dylan Cozens, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:21OTTBrady Tkachuk: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:21BUFJohn Hayden: Instigator2 min
- P1 14:21BUFJohn Hayden: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:21BUFJohn Hayden: Misconduct10 min
- P1 17:27OTTAustin Watson: Interference2 min
- P1 18:13BUFRasmus Dahlin: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:35OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:33BUFKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 9:14BUFMark Jankowski: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:44BUFPeyton Krebs: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Gambrell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Olofsson – Krebs8:19
xG 0.54–0.30 (65%)attempts 11–8goals 0–0
- Eakin – Skinner – Tuch2:13
xG 0.03–0.01 (78%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Cozens9:44
xG 0.32–0.39 (45%)attempts 17–8goals 1–0
- Eakin – Hayden – Bjork5:51
xG 0.07–0.22 (25%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Samuelsson14:33
xG 0.50–0.28 (64%)attempts 12–14goals 1–0
- Butcher – Hagg13:41
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 17–18goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Dahlin14:43
xG 0.57–0.84 (40%)attempts 20–20goals 1–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFormenton – Batherson – Stützle6:19
xG 0.44–0.07 (86%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Gaudette – Formenton – Stützle3:32
xG 0.31–0.05 (85%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Norris – Batherson – Tkachuk8:16
xG 0.27–0.11 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Paul – Norris – Tkachuk4:04
xG 0.18–0.15 (54%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom8:10
xG 0.43–0.15 (75%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Holden – Zub12:35
xG 0.59–0.37 (62%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
- Chabot – Zub2:09
xG 0.08–0.02 (75%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).