Sat, Jan 29, 2022·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Buffalo Sabres 3, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 212 | 118 | 05 | 335 |
| ARI | 09 | 05 | 114 | 128 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:02BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Jacob Bryson, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 15:07BUFPeyton KrebsGWGAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–0
- P2 7:14BUFAlex TuchAssists: Peyton Krebs, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–0
- P3 11:30ARIShayne GostisbeherePPAssists: Clayton Keller, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.07 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:29ARILawson Crouse: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:40BUFMattias Samuelsson: Tripping2 min
- P1 18:18ARIRyan Dzingel: Hooking2 min
- P2 13:51ARIShayne Gostisbehere: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:51BUFAnders Bjork: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:19ARIJ.J. Moser: Holding2 min
- P3 10:17BUFMattias Samuelsson: Holding2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Boyd
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Jankowski – Hayden2:40
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Mittelstadt – Krebs – Cozens2:12
xG 0.11–0.01 (93%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Jankowski – Hayden – Bjork2:17
xG 0.13–0.06 (69%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Tuch – Thompson – Krebs5:45
xG 0.22–0.15 (59%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Hagg12:28
xG 0.91–0.65 (58%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Samuelsson14:49
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Bryson13:42
xG 0.58–0.84 (41%)attempts 12–10goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestEriksson – Roussel – Galchenyuk4:37
xG 0.56–0.09 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Roussel – Fischer2:38
xG 0.13–0.04 (76%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boyd – Fischer – Keller2:40
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Eriksson – Galchenyuk – Crouse4:41
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Capobianco15:02
xG 0.98–0.61 (62%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Stralman – Capobianco2:33
xG 0.34–0.07 (82%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Chychrun2:20
xG 0.00–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).