Mon, Feb 28, 2022·Capital One Arena, Washington
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 310 | 09 | 29 | 528 |
| WSH | 112 | 111 | 110 | 333 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:35TORMichael BuntingAssists: Mitch Marner, Rasmus Sandin · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 16:23WSHConor ShearyAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–1
- P1 18:49TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Alexander Kerfoot · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P1 19:58TORJustin HollAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–1
- P2 10:11WSHTom WilsonPPAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–2
- P3 1:44WSHTom WilsonSHAssists: Martin Fehérváry, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 16:37TORRasmus SandinGWGAssists: Justin Holl, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
- P3 18:59TORPierre EngvallENAssists: Ilya Mikheyev · Wrist, 0.78 xG5–3
Penalties (9)
- P1 9:32WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:44TORMichael Bunting: Holding2 min
- P2 8:34TORPierre Engvall: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:36WSHLars Eller: Interference2 min
- P2 15:58TORMichael Bunting: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:49WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:41WSHLars Eller: Slashing2 min
- P3 15:02WSHTrevor van Riemsdyk: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:02TORWayne Simmonds: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Kuznetsov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews11:30
xG 0.70–0.34 (67%)attempts 13–13goals 2–0
- Engvall – Kampf – Mikheyev9:08
xG 0.45–0.19 (70%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Nylander10:14
xG 0.46–0.38 (55%)attempts 14–9goals 1–1
- Spezza – Simmonds – Robertson4:49
xG 0.15–0.22 (39%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl13:54
xG 0.74–0.27 (73%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Rielly – Lyubushkin2:34
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Rielly – Liljegren12:27
xG 0.64–0.60 (52%)attempts 16–13goals 1–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHagelin – Dowd – Hathaway9:04
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Sheary8:02
xG 0.32–0.28 (53%)attempts 4–10goals 1–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson9:57
xG 0.21–0.47 (31%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
- Eller – Snively – McMichael6:11
xG 0.21–0.50 (29%)attempts 5–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestOrlov – van Riemsdyk2:04
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Kempny8:21
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Orlov – Jensen11:27
xG 0.29–0.40 (42%)attempts 8–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).