Tue, Mar 1, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Ottawa Senators 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 27 | 08 | 012 | 227 |
| TBL | 26 | 212 | 14 | 522 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:11OTTTyler EnnisAssists: Thomas Chabot, Connor Brown · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 3:43OTTZachary SanfordAssists: Colin White, Brady Tkachuk · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P1 7:15TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Brayden Point · Backhand, 0.10 xG2–1
- P1 14:49TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P2 5:18TBLSteven StamkosPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Slap, 0.13 xG2–3
- P2 16:08TBLCorey PerryAssists: Patrick Maroon, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 9:02TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–5
Penalties (20)
- P1 8:51OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:51TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:56OTTParker Kelly: High sticking2 min
- P2 4:27TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:27OTTJoshua Brown: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 4:27OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:27TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:27OTTJoshua Brown: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:06OTTErik Brannstrom: Interference2 min
- P2 8:55OTTTim Stützle: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:02TBLPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Holding2 min
- P2 17:36TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:08TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
- P3 14:18TBLAnthony Cirelli: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:18OTTAlex Formenton: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:18TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:18OTTAlex Formenton: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:04TBLAlex Killorn: Cross checking2 min
- P3 18:37TBLPatrick Maroon: Roughing2 min
- P3 18:37OTTBrady Tkachuk: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00White won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSanford – White – Tkachuk8:18
xG 0.24–0.10 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 0–1
- Ennis – Brown – Paul7:58
xG 0.33–0.27 (55%)attempts 7–6goals 1–1
- Watson – Paul – Kelly2:06
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Watson – Gambrell – Kelly7:01
xG 0.06–0.06 (51%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Chabot – Zaitsev13:26
xG 0.30–0.31 (49%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Holden – Zub13:49
xG 0.26–0.28 (48%)attempts 5–14goals 1–1
- Brown – Brannstrom9:48
xG 0.12–0.44 (21%)attempts 4–7goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point7:49
xG 0.47–0.07 (86%)attempts 11–3goals 3–1
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:27
xG 0.28–0.24 (55%)attempts 4–6goals 1–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Joseph8:13
xG 0.07–0.04 (65%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Cirelli – Raddysh – Colton7:41
xG 0.05–0.03 (64%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta8:19
xG 0.45–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Rutta2:50
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- McDonagh – Cernak13:24
xG 0.31–0.25 (56%)attempts 3–10goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).