Sat, Mar 26, 2022·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Detroit Red Wings 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 05 | 011 | 116 | 14 | 236 |
| DET | 07 | 06 | 114 | 00 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 8:41DETOskar SundqvistAssists: Pius Suter, Adam Erne · Snap, 0.09 xG0–1
- P3 15:22TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Brayden Point, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.21 xG1–1
- OT 2:32TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Anthony Cirelli · Snap, 0.41 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 10:26TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P1 13:13TBLCal Foote: Cross checking2 min
- P2 6:02TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:17DETOlli Juolevi: Holding2 min
- P3 0:43TBLAnthony Cirelli: High sticking2 min
- P3 2:40TBLAlex Killorn: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:52DETFilip Zadina: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 0:51DETTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cirelli won the faceoff against Suter
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Kucherov – Point13:53
xG 0.84–0.37 (70%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
- Paul – Colton – Hagel7:02
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli9:19
xG 0.34–0.14 (70%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:20
xG 0.59–0.74 (44%)attempts 7–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Rutta10:52
xG 0.90–0.29 (76%)attempts 15–7goals 0–1
- Sergachev – Foote2:47
xG 0.53–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–0goals 0–0
- Cernak – Sergachev11:35
xG 0.43–0.16 (72%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Larkin – Raymond14:07
xG 0.66–0.46 (59%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Rasmussen – Zadina – Hirose6:17
xG 0.21–0.36 (36%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gagner – Vrana – Veleno7:51
xG 0.52–0.70 (43%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Sundqvist – Erne – Suter10:42
xG 0.16–0.52 (24%)attempts 5–14goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestWalman – Hronek4:41
xG 0.39–0.08 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Juolevi – Hronek8:58
xG 0.51–0.58 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Hronek – Seider2:05
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).