Sun, Mar 27, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, New York Islanders 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 211 | 214 | 434 |
| NYI | 111 | 07 | 06 | 124 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:14NYIBrock NelsonAssists: Adam Pelech · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 1:10TBLVictor HedmanPPAssists: Brayden Point, Andrei Vasilevskiy · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 9:47TBLAlex KillornGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Tip-in, 0.27 xG2–1
- P3 9:10TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–1
- P3 16:56TBLMikhail SergachevAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.23 xG4–1
Penalties (13)
- P1 2:32NYIRoss Johnston: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:32TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:32TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
- P1 2:32NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P1 11:55TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:05NYIKyle Palmieri: Interference2 min
- P1 19:15NYIZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 5:24NYIAnders Lee: Tripping2 min
- P2 10:37NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:37TBLJan Rutta: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:37TBLCorey Perry: Interference2 min
- P3 11:55NYIKyle Palmieri: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:59TBLBrayden Point: Holding the stick2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nelson won the faceoff against Cirelli
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare8:13
xG 1.30–0.08 (94%)attempts 14–2goals 0–0
- Killorn – Palat – Cirelli7:32
xG 0.25–0.10 (71%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Point9:05
xG 0.70–0.66 (52%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Paul – Colton – Hagel8:14
xG 0.19–0.58 (25%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCernak – Sergachev12:17
xG 1.76–0.78 (69%)attempts 16–10goals 2–1
- Bogosian – Foote12:11
xG 1.07–0.30 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Hedman – Rutta12:01
xG 0.32–0.43 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBailey – Palmieri – Pageau8:32
xG 0.61–0.18 (77%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier11:54
xG 0.33–0.62 (35%)attempts 9–11goals 1–1
- Parise – Barzal – Wahlstrom8:26
xG 0.32–0.81 (28%)attempts 10–10goals 0–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston7:20
xG 0.12–1.44 (8%)attempts 2–13goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Chara – Dobson15:19
xG 0.55–0.54 (50%)attempts 11–15goals 0–0
- Pelech – Pulock13:34
xG 1.03–1.36 (43%)attempts 17–14goals 1–2
- Pelech – Hutton2:49
xG 0.00–0.55 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).