Tue, Apr 12, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 112 | 310 | 528 |
| TOR | 07 | 19 | 110 | 226 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:25BUFKyle OkposoPPAssists: Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Dahlin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–0
- P2 2:09TORTimothy LiljegrenAssists: William Nylander, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 9:11BUFTage ThompsonPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Henri Jokiharju · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 4:09BUFJeff SkinnerGWGAssists: Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P3 5:43BUFRasmus DahlinAssists: Victor Olofsson, Rasmus Asplund · Wrist, 0.03 xG4–1
- P3 8:53TORAlexander KerfootAssists: Morgan Rielly, Pierre Engvall · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–2
- P3 17:42BUFRasmus AsplundENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.75 xG5–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:32TORAuston Matthews: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 4:48BUFJacob Bryson: Holding2 min
- P1 5:26TORMorgan Rielly: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:48BUFDylan Cozens: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:04TORMitch Marner: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 13:31BUFVinnie Hinostroza: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:10TORJason Spezza: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:41BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:39BUFJohn Hayden: Interference goalkeeper2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Krebs won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOlofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt7:22
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Krebs7:41
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson9:19
xG 0.19–0.39 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 1–1
- Okposo – Girgensons – Cozens2:02
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSamuelsson – Dahlin15:14
xG 0.51–0.46 (53%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Jokiharju – Power13:51
xG 0.29–0.72 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 1–0
- Fitzgerald – Bryson8:27
xG 0.18–0.64 (22%)attempts 5–8goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews9:23
xG 0.51–0.07 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Nylander – Engvall – Kampf3:15
xG 0.40–0.07 (86%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Engvall2:44
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Mikheyev3:20
xG 0.11–0.16 (42%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Liljegren15:20
xG 0.88–0.30 (75%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Brodie – Holl13:12
xG 0.76–0.39 (66%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Giordano – Rielly2:03
xG 0.24–0.04 (85%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).