Skip to content
Ice Lab

Thu, Apr 21, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 8

Away

Toronto Maple Leafs

1

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
TOR014011112137
TBL07416413836

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P2 3:54TBLAlex KillornAssists: Erik Cernak, Brandon Hagel · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–1
  2. P2 11:37TBLRoss ColtonGWGAssists: Nick Paul, Corey Perry · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–2
  3. P2 12:38TBLSteven StamkosPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Slap, 0.10 xG0–3
  4. P2 15:07TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Corey Perry, Alex Killorn · Backhand, 0.15 xG0–4
  5. P3 1:12TBLOndrej PalatAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–5
  6. P3 4:33TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Deflected, 0.18 xG0–6
  7. P3 7:45TORIlya MikheyevPPAssists: Jason Spezza, Mark Giordano · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–6
  8. P3 8:50TBLRoss ColtonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ryan McDonagh · Wrist, 0.18 xG1–7
  9. P3 14:11TBLPatrick MaroonAssists: Ondrej Palat, Ross Colton · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–8
Penalties (30)
  1. P1 0:41TBLBrandon Hagel: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 9:16TORMichael Bunting: Too many men on the ice2 min
  3. P1 19:53TBLVictor Hedman: Hooking2 min
  4. P2 12:25TORJason Spezza: Hooking2 min · PPG
  5. P2 14:16TORIlya Lyubushkin: High sticking2 min · PPG
  6. P2 15:22TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min
  7. P2 15:22TORMark Giordano: Roughing2 min
  8. P2 15:22TBLBrandon Hagel: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 15:22TORJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
  10. P2 15:38TORAlexander Kerfoot: High sticking2 min
  11. P2 15:38TBLSteven Stamkos: Tripping2 min
  12. P2 19:29TORWayne Simmonds: Fighting5 min
  13. P2 19:29TBLPatrick Maroon: Fighting5 min
  14. P3 3:18TORMichael Bunting: Elbowing2 min · PPG
  15. P3 5:07TBLCal Foote: Holding2 min
  16. P3 7:01TBLNick Paul: Misconduct10 min
  17. P3 7:01TORColin Blackwell: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 7:01TBLAnthony Cirelli: Roughing2 min · PPG
  19. P3 8:10TORKyle Clifford: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min
  20. P3 8:10TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  21. P3 8:10TBLCorey Perry: Roughing2 min
  22. P3 8:10TORMorgan Rielly: Roughing2 min
  23. P3 9:53TBLAlex Killorn: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  24. P3 9:53TORIlya Mikheyev: Slashing2 min
  25. P3 15:48TBLPatrick Maroon: Misconduct10 min
  26. P3 15:48TORWayne Simmonds: Misconduct10 min
  27. P3 17:02TORMichael Bunting: Misconduct10 min
  28. P3 19:10TBLCal Foote: High sticking2 min
  29. P3 19:10TBLCal Foote: Roughing2 min
  30. P3 19:10TORAlexander Kerfoot: Cross checking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

TOR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
48% to win52% to win
← TOR attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Cirelli
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

TORTBL
37Shots on goal36
3.1Expected goals4.7
61Shot attempts68
32Faceoffs won33
5Power plays5
65Penalty minutes49
26Hits34
13Blocked shots17
2Giveaways2
8Takeaways10

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Toronto Maple Leafs

Forward lines

  1. bestKerfoot – Nylander – Engvall5:53

    xG 0.65–0.27 (71%)attempts 12–4goals 0–1

  2. Tavares – Bunting – Marner8:39

    xG 0.41–0.37 (53%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1

  3. Blackwell – Kampf – Mikheyev4:47

    xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1

  4. Spezza – Simmonds – Clifford5:37

    xG 0.06–0.36 (13%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestRielly – Lyubushkin11:36

    xG 0.54–0.45 (55%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0

  2. Brodie – Holl11:09

    xG 0.67–0.63 (52%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1

  3. Holl – Rielly2:30

    xG 0.17–0.26 (39%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestKillorn – Cirelli – Hagel8:37

    xG 0.57–0.21 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0

  2. Stamkos – Palat – Kucherov8:51

    xG 0.74–0.61 (55%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0

  3. Perry – Paul – Colton7:54

    xG 0.26–0.37 (41%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMcDonagh – Foote5:26

    xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

  2. Bogosian – Sergachev6:09

    xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0

  3. Hedman – Cernak8:56

    xG 0.44–0.37 (54%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 4.7 xGTOR 3.1 xG
012345P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLTOR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 13/100 · #1131 of 1312 this seasonSwing 0.65 · 4 goals in reachComeback index 50% (winner's lowest chance)
TOR 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +22 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.

TBL winsTOR wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − TOR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).