Sat, Apr 23, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
New York Islanders 3, Buffalo Sabres 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 16 | 05 | 211 | 322 |
| BUF | 112 | 310 | 113 | 535 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:11BUFCasey MittelstadtAssists: Kyle Okposo, Casey Fitzgerald · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 17:09NYIMathew BarzalAssists: Noah Dobson, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:17BUFRasmus DahlinPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Alex Tuch · Slap, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 4:05BUFTage ThompsonAssists: Jacob Bryson, Victor Olofsson · Slap, 0.03 xG1–3
- P2 12:48BUFVinnie HinostrozaGWGAssists: Anders Bjork, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 8:45NYINoah DobsonAssists: Zach Parise, Zdeno Chara · Backhand, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 10:22NYIKieffer BellowsAssists: Ryan Pulock, Otto Koivula · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–4
- P3 12:40BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.25 xG3–5
Penalties (13)
- P1 3:39NYIZdeno Chara: Tripping2 min
- P1 5:48NYIAdam Pelech: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:34BUFDylan Cozens: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:35NYIAdam Pelech: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:45BUFJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:49NYISebastian Aho: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:40NYIRoss Johnston: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:40BUFJeff Skinner: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:40NYIAdam Pelech: Misconduct10 min
- P3 14:40NYIAdam Pelech: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:40BUFJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:40NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:59NYIZach Parise: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Nelson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestBellows – Koivula – Wahlstrom7:15
xG 0.40–0.22 (64%)attempts 10–8goals 1–1
- Martin – Cizikas – Johnston5:15
xG 0.10–0.21 (32%)attempts 7–3goals 0–2
- Parise – Palmieri – Barzal8:37
xG 0.15–0.76 (16%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
- Bailey – Lee – Nelson9:33
xG 0.09–0.81 (10%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock12:12
xG 0.69–0.61 (53%)attempts 17–7goals 1–1
- Greene – Aho9:39
xG 0.17–0.28 (38%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
- Chara – Dobson12:16
xG 0.00–0.87 (0%)attempts 4–14goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Asplund – Cozens7:58
xG 0.65–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 0–0
- Skinner – Olofsson – Thompson9:04
xG 0.79–0.15 (84%)attempts 10–6goals 2–0
- Girgensons – Hinostroza – Bjork8:23
xG 0.20–0.03 (88%)attempts 8–7goals 1–0
- Tuch – Mittelstadt – Krebs6:34
xG 0.06–0.49 (11%)attempts 1–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFitzgerald – Bryson9:27
xG 0.60–0.19 (76%)attempts 16–5goals 2–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin13:26
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Power12:07
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).