Wed, Oct 12, 2022·Centre Bell, Montreal
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Montréal Canadiens 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 18 | 113 | 111 | 332 |
| MTL | 08 | 29 | 26 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:41TORMichael BuntingAssists: Mitch Marner, TJ Brodie · Snap, 0.17 xG1–0
- P2 0:33MTLCole CaufieldAssists: Nick Suzuki, David Savard · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 9:06TORDenis MalginAssists: John Tavares, William Nylander · Snap, 0.29 xG2–1
- P2 15:56MTLCole CaufieldUnassisted · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–2
- P3 17:30MTLSean MonahanAssists: Jordan Harris, Kirby Dach · Snap, 0.15 xG2–3
- P3 18:10TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 19:41MTLJosh AndersonGWGAssists: Nick Suzuki · Snap, 0.15 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:07TORMark Giordano: Interference2 min
- P1 5:37TORMichael Bunting: Holding2 min
- P1 12:59TORRasmus Sandin: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:45MTLChris Wideman: Interference2 min
- P2 4:02MTLRem Pitlick: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:11TORAlexander Kerfoot: Interference2 min
- P2 17:20MTLArber Xhekaj: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P3 5:33MTLSean Monahan: High sticking2 min
- P3 14:04MTLJordan Harris: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Suzuki
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Kerfoot – Engvall5:13
xG 0.55–0.11 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Malgin6:30
xG 0.41–0.22 (66%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews7:41
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 10–5goals 1–2
- Aube-Kubel – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:00
xG 0.06–0.58 (9%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Sandin11:37
xG 0.78–0.30 (72%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Brodie – Rielly12:05
xG 0.82–0.51 (62%)attempts 15–8goals 1–2
- Muzzin – Holl12:14
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 15–17goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestHoffman – Monahan – Dach8:14
xG 0.39–0.27 (59%)attempts 12–6goals 0–0
- Gallagher – Dvorak – Slafkovský7:28
xG 0.22–0.19 (55%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Evans – Pitlick3:54
xG 0.04–0.15 (23%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Anderson – Suzuki – Caufield10:30
xG 0.54–0.85 (39%)attempts 9–16goals 3–2
Defence pairs
- bestKovacevic – Harris12:36
xG 0.54–0.29 (65%)attempts 16–8goals 1–0
- Savard – Guhle15:19
xG 0.56–0.45 (56%)attempts 8–19goals 2–1
- Wideman – Xhekaj8:51
xG 0.35–0.48 (43%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 67% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).