Thu, Oct 13, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 1, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 116 | 09 | 011 | 136 |
| BUF | 09 | 215 | 212 | 436 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:16OTTBrady TkachukAssists: Drake Batherson, Erik Brannstrom · Snap, 0.11 xG1–0
- P2 4:31BUFJJ PeterkaAssists: Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 7:25BUFRasmus DahlinGWGAssists: Peyton Krebs, Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P3 19:18BUFVictor OlofssonENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.61 xG1–3
- P3 19:33BUFVictor OlofssonENAssists: Ilya Lyubushkin · Wrist, 0.50 xG1–4
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:41BUFHenri Jokiharju: Hooking2 min
- P1 0:00OTTThomas Chabot: Hooking2 min
- P2 7:46OTTAlex DeBrincat: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:34BUFIlya Lyubushkin: Interference2 min
- P2 12:46BUFMattias Samuelsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:28OTTThomas Chabot: Tripping2 min
- P2 19:23BUFCasey Mittelstadt: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:36OTTMathieu Joseph: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Asplund won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBatherson – Tkachuk – Stützle10:38
xG 0.50–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–8goals 1–0
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly5:23
xG 0.10–0.05 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Giroux – DeBrincat – Norris11:34
xG 0.65–0.62 (51%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Motte – Joseph – Pinto6:40
xG 0.19–0.34 (36%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Brannstrom9:18
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 9–7goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson12:41
xG 0.42–0.51 (45%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
- Chabot – Brannstrom2:44
xG 0.08–0.19 (28%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestOkposo – Girgensons – Asplund7:12
xG 0.47–0.22 (69%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Girgensons – Asplund – Peterka2:23
xG 0.08–0.06 (57%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Krebs – Cozens – Peterka6:57
xG 0.31–0.32 (49%)attempts 11–6goals 1–1
- Tuch – Mittelstadt – Quinn9:24
xG 0.15–0.26 (37%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBryson – Lyubushkin9:17
xG 0.55–0.27 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0
- Samuelsson – Dahlin12:57
xG 0.25–0.45 (36%)attempts 10–11goals 0–1
- Jokiharju – Power13:14
xG 0.46–0.78 (37%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).