Sat, Oct 15, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 07 | 110 | 228 |
| TOR | 013 | 111 | 28 | 332 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:09OTTShane PintoPPAssists: Claude Giroux, Jake Sanderson · Snap, 0.10 xG1–0
- P2 19:43TORDavid KampfAssists: Jake Muzzin, Calle Jarnkrok · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- P3 13:24TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: Auston Matthews, John Tavares · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 14:49OTTClaude GirouxAssists: Alex DeBrincat, Thomas Chabot · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–2
- P3 18:05TORJustin HollGWGAssists: Michael Bunting, Mitch Marner · Snap, 0.22 xG2–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:22TORMitch Marner: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 7:28OTTTim Stützle: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:02TORDavid Kampf: Holding2 min
- P3 12:29OTTParker Kelly: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Stützle
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestGiroux – DeBrincat – Norris10:55
xG 1.08–0.42 (72%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
- Batherson – Tkachuk – Stützle14:38
xG 0.77–0.40 (66%)attempts 14–13goals 0–1
- Watson – Kastelic – Kelly4:40
xG 0.01–0.11 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Motte – Joseph – Pinto10:31
xG 0.35–0.97 (26%)attempts 5–18goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestChabot – Brannstrom3:20
xG 0.59–0.25 (70%)attempts 8–2goals 1–1
- Hamonic – Sanderson16:09
xG 0.47–0.40 (54%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Chabot – Zub19:10
xG 0.82–1.04 (44%)attempts 12–28goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews14:20
xG 1.11–0.24 (83%)attempts 25–8goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Engvall8:48
xG 0.42–0.19 (68%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Malgin10:34
xG 0.59–0.74 (44%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Aube-Kubel – Aston-Reese – Kampf7:29
xG 0.05–0.87 (6%)attempts 3–9goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Sandin12:50
xG 0.65–0.20 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Muzzin – Holl14:57
xG 0.92–0.58 (61%)attempts 20–13goals 2–0
- Brodie – Rielly18:24
xG 0.86–1.24 (41%)attempts 20–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).