Mon, Oct 17, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Arizona Coyotes 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 14 | 19 | 26 | 419 |
| TOR | 05 | 08 | 215 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:34ARINick RitchiePPAssists: Shayne Gostisbehere, J.J. Moser · Tip-in, 0.06 xG1–0
- P2 8:30ARIChristian FischerAssists: Nick Bjugstad · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–0
- P3 12:54TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Tavares, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 13:18TORMitch MarnerUnassisted · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 18:27ARIShayne GostisbeherePPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, Nick Ritchie · Slap, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 19:49ARILawson CrouseENAssists: Christian Fischer · Wrist, 0.68 xG4–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 0:34ARIJ.J. Moser: Cross checking2 min
- P1 2:55TORNicolas Aube-Kubel: Kneeing2 min
- P1 10:13ARIJack McBain: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:13TORTJ Brodie: Roughing removing opponents helmet2 min
- P1 16:34ARINick Ritchie: Boarding2 min
- P1 18:43TORCalle Jarnkrok: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:01TORJustin Holl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 12:20ARIJoshua Brown: Cross checking2 min
- P2 17:45TORNicolas Aube-Kubel: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 5:06ARITravis Boyd: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:19ARIJack McBain: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:55TORCalle Jarnkrok: Interference2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bjugstad won the faceoff against Kampf
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Hayton – Guenther6:16
xG 0.14–0.00 (97%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Kassian – McBain – Maccelli5:44
xG 0.07–0.17 (28%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – O'Brien – Fischer9:30
xG 0.53–0.86 (38%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Boyd – Crouse – Keller5:40
xG 0.03–0.89 (3%)attempts 1–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Mayo2:25
xG 0.10–0.01 (87%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Mayo – Välimäki7:23
xG 0.29–0.26 (53%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Brown9:41
xG 0.31–0.42 (43%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBunting – Marner – Matthews7:41
xG 1.01–0.50 (67%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Nylander3:20
xG 0.32–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Marner – Matthews3:51
xG 0.34–0.18 (66%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Aube-Kubel – Aston-Reese – Kampf3:04
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly8:33
xG 1.20–0.09 (93%)attempts 17–2goals 0–0
- Giordano – Sandin7:47
xG 0.57–0.18 (76%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Brodie – Holl3:25
xG 0.24–0.14 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).