Sat, Oct 22, 2022·Canada Life Centre, Winnipeg
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Winnipeg Jets 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 19 | 214 | 15 | 428 |
| WPG | 19 | 010 | 012 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:17WPGPierre-Luc DuboisAssists: Cole Perfetti, Blake Wheeler · Wrist, 0.17 xG0–1
- P1 9:56TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Snap, 0.26 xG1–1
- P2 14:34TORDavid KampfGWGAssists: Wayne Simmonds, Kyle Clifford · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 18:56TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Rasmus Sandin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–1
- P3 17:23TORMichael BuntingENAssists: Mitch Marner, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.73 xG4–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 7:05TORMichael Bunting: Interference2 min
- P1 8:06WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 11:01TORKyle Clifford: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:21WPGJosh Morrissey: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:08WPGJosh Morrissey: Interference2 min
- P2 16:08TORMorgan Rielly: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 16:08WPGJosh Morrissey: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 16:08TORMorgan Rielly: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:14WPGPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
- P2 18:14TORMichael Bunting: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 18:14WPGBrenden Dillon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 3:05TORWayne Simmonds: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Scheifele won the faceoff against Tavares
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSimmonds – Clifford – Kampf6:46
xG 0.32–0.06 (83%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews11:09
xG 0.53–0.34 (61%)attempts 15–9goals 0–0
- Tavares – Nylander – Robertson10:35
xG 0.26–0.36 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Jarnkrok – Kerfoot – Aston-Reese5:23
xG 0.11–0.30 (27%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Rielly11:56
xG 0.83–0.45 (65%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Giordano – Mete10:29
xG 0.37–0.24 (61%)attempts 9–9goals 1–0
- Brodie – Mete2:55
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- bestWheeler – Dubois – Perfetti11:16
xG 0.64–0.32 (67%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Gagner – Lowry – Barron6:34
xG 0.31–0.10 (75%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Maenalanen – Jonsson-Fjallby – Gustafsson4:50
xG 0.49–0.48 (51%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Scheifele – Connor – Appleton12:51
xG 0.39–0.56 (41%)attempts 15–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Stanley11:29
xG 0.52–0.32 (62%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Schmidt – Pionk3:12
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Dillon – Schmidt13:30
xG 0.63–0.78 (45%)attempts 7–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WPG's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WPG is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WPG − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).