Sat, Oct 29, 2022·UBS Arena, Elmont
Colorado Avalanche 4, New York Islanders 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 011 | 312 | 114 | 437 |
| NYI | 010 | 113 | 421 | 544 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:46COLEvan RodriguesPPAssists: Mikko Rantanen, Artturi Lehkonen · Slap, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 7:28COLMikko RantanenAssists: Josh Manson · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–0
- P2 8:33COLEvan RodriguesAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Devon Toews · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–0
- P2 9:53NYINoah DobsonAssists: Alexander Romanov, Oliver Wahlstrom · Slap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P3 3:35NYIZach PariseAssists: Jean-Gabriel Pageau, Ryan Pulock · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–2
- P3 10:39NYIScott MayfieldAssists: Mathew Barzal, Casey Cizikas · Tip-in, 0.06 xG3–3
- P3 10:56NYIAnthony BeauvillierAssists: Anders Lee · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
- P3 18:39NYIBrock NelsonENGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.63 xG3–5
- P3 19:30COLAlex NewhookAssists: Cale Makar, Nathan MacKinnon · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 15:40COLKurtis MacDermid: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:15NYICasey Cizikas: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 2:44NYIOliver Wahlstrom: Hooking2 min
- P2 5:11COLMikko Rantanen: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 7:10COLNathan MacKinnon: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00MacKinnon won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestCompher – Lehkonen – O'Connor10:45
xG 0.46–0.34 (58%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- MacDermid – Maltsev – Kaut3:29
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Hunt – Newhook8:41
xG 0.22–0.71 (23%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues15:26
xG 0.42–1.71 (20%)attempts 13–22goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Makar16:31
xG 0.91–0.31 (75%)attempts 23–13goals 1–1
- Johnson – Manson10:26
xG 0.71–1.44 (33%)attempts 12–17goals 1–0
- Girard – Byram15:22
xG 0.18–1.76 (9%)attempts 7–22goals 0–3
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParise – Palmieri – Pageau9:25
xG 1.34–0.27 (83%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Lee – Nelson – Beauvillier9:50
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 15–7goals 1–0
- Bailey – Barzal – Wahlstrom9:04
xG 0.37–0.21 (63%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
- Clutterbuck – Martin – Cizikas5:48
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPelech – Pulock13:32
xG 1.96–0.31 (86%)attempts 16–11goals 1–0
- Dobson – Romanov14:14
xG 0.94–0.47 (67%)attempts 22–14goals 2–0
- Mayfield – Pelech3:37
xG 0.24–0.20 (55%)attempts 7–3goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).