Tue, Nov 1, 2022·Mullett Arena, Tempe
Florida Panthers 1, Arizona Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 116 | 019 | 142 |
| ARI | 08 | 13 | 210 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 8:24FLAColin WhiteAssists: Josh Mahura, Sam Bennett · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 13:47ARILawson CrousePPAssists: Matias Maccelli, Dylan Guenther · Wrist, 0.09 xG1–1
- P3 8:55ARINick RitchiePPGWGAssists: Clayton Keller, J.J. Moser · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 18:53ARIClayton KellerENAssists: Christian Fischer, Patrik Nemeth · Wrist, 0.66 xG1–3
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:06FLAAnton Lundell: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:47FLASam Bennett: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 19:10ARIChristian Fischer: Interference2 min
- P1 19:54FLASam Bennett: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:54ARITroy Stecher: Embellishment2 min
- P2 4:42ARIChristian Fischer: Tripping2 min
- P2 12:16FLALucas Carlsson: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 15:09ARIDysin Mayo: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:09FLARyan Lomberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:40FLARadko Gudas: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 9:15ARIJack McBain: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayton won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Hornqvist – Lomberg4:55
xG 0.43–0.10 (82%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Reinhart – Bennett – Balcers7:38
xG 0.30–0.09 (77%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Verhaeghe – Barkov – Tkachuk10:43
xG 0.41–0.38 (51%)attempts 18–5goals 0–0
- White – Luostarinen – Lundell6:09
xG 0.11–0.16 (41%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGudas – Mahura12:52
xG 0.91–0.12 (88%)attempts 16–10goals 1–0
- Staal – Carlsson7:28
xG 0.21–0.12 (64%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Montour – Forsling13:32
xG 0.40–0.67 (37%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRitchie – Keller – Hayton5:32
xG 0.44–0.15 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- O'Brien – Fischer – McBain7:48
xG 0.11–0.11 (49%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
- Bjugstad – Crouse – Maccelli8:18
xG 0.10–0.25 (30%)attempts 3–12goals 0–0
- Boyd – Keller – Guenther5:55
xG 0.20–0.53 (27%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGostisbehere – Brown8:33
xG 0.31–0.22 (58%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Mayo2:02
xG 0.01–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Gostisbehere – Välimäki2:41
xG 0.11–0.26 (30%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).