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Ice Lab

Thu, Nov 3, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Carolina Hurricanes 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 3 (SO)

Away

Carolina Hurricanes

4

Final

Shootout

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

3

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3OTSOTotal
CAR115121114052455
TBL0831104031326

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 8:29CARSeth JarvisAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–0
  2. P2 5:50TBLRoss ColtonPPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Brandon Hagel · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
  3. P2 9:19TBLNick PaulAssists: Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–2
  4. P2 14:01CARMartin NecasPPAssists: Brent Burns, Andrei Svechnikov · Slap, 0.10 xG2–2
  5. P2 19:00TBLNikita KucherovPPAssists: Alex Killorn, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P3 13:34CARBrady SkjeiSHAssists: Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3

Shootout

  1. 1. TBL Steven Stamkos stopped
  2. 2. CAR Brent Burns stopped
  3. 3. TBL Nikita Kucherov stopped
  4. 4. CAR Andrei Svechnikov stopped
  5. 5. TBL Brayden Point stopped
  6. 6. CAR Martin Necas stopped
  7. 7. TBL Ross Colton scored
  8. 8. CAR Teuvo Teravainen scored
  9. 9. TBL Brandon Hagel stopped
  10. 10. CAR Seth Jarvis stopped
  11. 11. TBL Corey Perry stopped
  12. 12. CAR Sebastian Aho scored
Penalties (12)
  1. P1 6:24TBLCorey Perry: Too many men on the ice2 min
  2. P1 14:33TBLErik Cernak: Roughing2 min
  3. P2 2:48CARJalen Chatfield: Tripping2 min
  4. P2 2:48CARJalen Chatfield: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 9:52TBLIan Cole: Interference2 min
  6. P2 13:41TBLRoss Colton: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 18:25CARJalen Chatfield: Cross checking2 min · PPG
  8. P2 18:25CARJordan Martinook: Slashing2 min
  9. P3 7:41TBLCorey Perry: Tripping2 min
  10. P3 12:24CARBrett Pesce: Tripping2 min
  11. OT 1:55TBLBrayden Point: Slashing2 min
  12. OT 5:00CARAndrei Svechnikov: Slashing2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CAR00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
49% to win51% to win
← CAR attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Bellemare won the faceoff against Staal
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CARTBL
55Shots on goal26
5.2Expected goals2.7
93Shot attempts49
42Faceoffs won26
6Power plays5
12Penalty minutes12
38Hits32
11Blocked shots22
8Giveaways13
17Takeaways19

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Carolina Hurricanes

Forward lines

  1. bestStaal – Fast – Martinook11:26

    xG 0.99–0.53 (65%)attempts 20–6goals 0–0

  2. Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis9:24

    xG 0.62–0.27 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0

  3. Necas – Kotkaniemi – Svechnikov12:03

    xG 0.39–0.13 (75%)attempts 12–5goals 0–1

  4. Stastny – Stepan – Noesen5:09

    xG 0.35–0.27 (56%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestSkjei – Pesce16:30

    xG 1.25–0.19 (87%)attempts 20–9goals 0–0

  2. Burns – Slavin12:49

    xG 0.93–0.92 (50%)attempts 24–12goals 0–0

  3. de Haan – Chatfield9:00

    xG 0.17–0.25 (41%)attempts 4–7goals 0–1

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestPerry – Maroon – Bellemare6:54

    xG 0.47–0.25 (65%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0

  2. Killorn – Stamkos – Paul5:05

    xG 0.25–0.14 (63%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0

  3. Namestnikov – Colton – Koepke4:39

    xG 0.02–0.14 (12%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  4. Kucherov – Point – Hagel11:16

    xG 0.11–0.78 (13%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestFleury – Foote8:10

    xG 0.66–0.31 (68%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0

  2. Cernak – Sergachev2:05

    xG 0.12–0.08 (61%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0

  3. Sergachev – Foote2:24

    xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.7 xGCAR 5.2 xG
012345P1P2P3OTEndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLCAR

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.

Excitement 89/100 · #197 of 1312 this seasonSwing 2.42 · 6 goals in reachComeback index 14% (winner's lowest chance)
CAR 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3OTEndBiggest swing +31 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 83% of the time.

TBL winsCAR wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − CAR), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).