Sat, Nov 5, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 16 | 110 | 18 | 324 |
| TBL | 17 | 114 | 39 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:07TBLNick PaulAssists: Victor Hedman, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 16:24BUFZemgus GirgensonsAssists: Owen Power, Tage Thompson · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:05TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–2
- P2 8:34BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Owen Power, Kyle Okposo · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 4:25BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Alex Tuch, Dylan Cozens · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
- P3 7:40TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.23 xG3–3
- P3 15:05TBLNick PerbixGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 19:02TBLNikita KucherovENAssists: Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.72 xG3–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 13:46TBLNikita Kucherov: Slashing2 min
- P2 0:31BUFTage Thompson: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:18TBLAlex Killorn: Hooking2 min
- P2 4:05BUFDylan Cozens: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 7:19TBLPatrick Maroon: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Cozens4:03
xG 0.30–0.16 (65%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Girgensons – Asplund – Krebs7:14
xG 0.23–0.36 (39%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Okposo – Skinner – Thompson8:18
xG 0.46–0.60 (43%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Tuch – Cozens – Peterka6:54
xG 0.13–0.28 (32%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestClague – Power18:28
xG 1.52–0.59 (72%)attempts 28–9goals 2–0
- Bryson – Power3:09
xG 0.10–0.02 (83%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Fitzgerald – Pilut4:54
xG 0.01–0.44 (3%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel14:34
xG 1.45–0.64 (69%)attempts 19–9goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Colton – Koepke8:18
xG 0.69–0.45 (60%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Colton2:10
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Perry – Maroon – Bellemare7:53
xG 0.16–0.19 (46%)attempts 3–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Perbix13:32
xG 1.14–0.17 (87%)attempts 16–7goals 2–0
- Cole – Fleury9:35
xG 0.35–0.15 (70%)attempts 4–8goals 0–0
- Cole – Sergachev4:54
xG 0.46–0.41 (53%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).