Sun, Nov 6, 2022·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 04 | 112 | 25 | 321 |
| CAR | 111 | 08 | 011 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:11CARStefan NoesenPPAssists: Andrei Svechnikov, Brent Burns · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–1
- P2 18:30TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Pierre Engvall, Justin Holl · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P3 8:24TORJohn TavaresGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Nick Robertson · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–1
- P3 16:25TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.12 xG3–1
Penalties (3)
- P1 7:28TORJustin Holl: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P2 3:32TORMichael Bunting: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:05CARJesperi Kotkaniemi: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kampf won the faceoff against Necas
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMalgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf10:03
xG 0.60–0.29 (68%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Kerfoot – Nylander – Matthews8:07
xG 0.37–0.22 (63%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Tavares – Marner – Robertson5:47
xG 0.18–0.11 (62%)attempts 3–5goals 1–0
- Jarnkrok – Engvall – Robertson3:36
xG 0.09–0.26 (27%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrodie – Holl15:12
xG 0.69–0.39 (64%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Rielly – Liljegren14:04
xG 0.21–0.37 (36%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
- Giordano – Sandin14:09
xG 0.74–0.93 (45%)attempts 18–20goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStastny – Stepan – Noesen7:34
xG 0.87–0.27 (76%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Teravainen – Aho – Jarvis8:39
xG 0.47–0.19 (71%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Staal – Fast – Martinook12:22
xG 0.46–0.37 (55%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Teravainen – Kotkaniemi – Jarvis4:56
xG 0.11–0.10 (54%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBurns – Slavin18:59
xG 1.19–0.57 (68%)attempts 29–13goals 0–1
- Skjei – Pesce16:57
xG 0.51–0.55 (48%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
- de Haan – Chatfield10:39
xG 0.41–0.56 (42%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).