Sat, Nov 19, 2022·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 08 | 112 | 114 | 234 |
| TOR | 312 | 16 | 16 | 524 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:58TORJohn TavaresPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 17:27TORCalle JarnkrokAssists: Pierre Engvall, Rasmus Sandin · Snap, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 18:21TORMark GiordanoSHGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, David Kampf · Other, 1.00 xG0–3
- P2 10:01BUFAlex TuchPPAssists: Dylan Cozens, Rasmus Dahlin · Deflected, 0.10 xG1–3
- P2 14:50TORWilliam NylanderPPAssists: John Tavares, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–4
- P3 10:37TORWilliam NylanderAssists: John Tavares · Backhand, 0.08 xG1–5
- P3 15:07BUFCasey MittelstadtPPAssists: Jack Quinn, Victor Olofsson · Wrist, 0.26 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 12:45BUFRiley Sheahan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 17:52TORJohn Tavares: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:08TORRasmus Sandin: Hooking2 min
- P2 8:07TORAuston Matthews: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- P2 11:43TORWilliam Nylander: High sticking2 min
- P2 14:29BUFHenri Jokiharju: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 5:22TORWilliam Nylander: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:54TORTimothy Liljegren: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 18:50BUFRiley Sheahan: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Matthews won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Tuch – Thompson10:39
xG 0.61–0.47 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
- Sheahan – Asplund – Krebs2:06
xG 0.05–0.08 (38%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Sheahan – Hinostroza – Asplund6:06
xG 0.12–0.17 (42%)attempts 4–5goals 0–1
- Olofsson – Mittelstadt – Krebs6:11
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Fitzgerald – Power3:56
xG 0.09–0.09 (51%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Dahlin – Power9:07
xG 0.46–0.46 (50%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Bryson – Lyubushkin3:09
xG 0.09–0.13 (39%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestJarnkrok – Engvall – Holmberg7:20
xG 0.45–0.05 (90%)attempts 7–2goals 1–0
- Bunting – Marner – Matthews8:42
xG 0.46–0.36 (56%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Kerfoot – Marner2:18
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Malgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf6:43
xG 0.29–0.32 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl6:48
xG 0.73–0.26 (74%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
- Liljegren – Sandin7:47
xG 0.32–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Benn – Sandin4:02
xG 0.21–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).