Fri, Apr 14, 2023·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Colorado Avalanche 4, Nashville Predators 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 318 | 05 | 111 | 434 |
| NSH | 14 | 28 | 09 | 321 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:28COLDevon ToewsAssists: Nathan MacKinnon, Evan Rodrigues · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P1 3:20COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Devon Toews, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P1 5:42NSHKiefer SherwoodUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG2–1
- P1 13:14COLNathan MacKinnonAssists: Samuel Girard · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 2:32NSHLuke EvangelistaAssists: Tommy Novak, Cal Foote · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
- P2 7:08NSHKiefer SherwoodPPAssists: Yakov Trenin, Colton Sissons · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 18:18COLNathan MacKinnonGWGAssists: Mikko Rantanen · Snap, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:37NSHYakov Trenin: Interference2 min
- P1 14:54NSHSpencer Stastney: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:50COLKurtis MacDermid: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 15:45COLEvan Rodrigues: Slashing2 min
- P3 0:42NSHDante Fabbro: Roughing2 min
- P3 3:35NSHJake Livingstone: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against MacKinnon
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestMacKinnon – Nichushkin – Rodrigues4:14
xG 0.39–0.03 (93%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Eller – Nieto – O'Connor4:50
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Compher – Lehkonen – Nichushkin6:12
xG 0.12–0.11 (53%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- MacKinnon – Rantanen – Rodrigues8:42
xG 0.40–0.44 (48%)attempts 9–6goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestToews – Girard10:55
xG 1.10–0.23 (83%)attempts 18–4goals 2–0
- Johnson – Johnson3:23
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Girard – Byram5:10
xG 0.25–0.17 (59%)attempts 10–3goals 1–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- Jankowski – McCarron – Asplund5:05
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
- Novak – Sherwood – Evangelista9:48
xG 0.34–0.53 (39%)attempts 9–9goals 2–1
- Sanford – Glass – Tomasino11:33
xG 0.37–0.60 (38%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
- Sissons – Trenin – Parssinen11:12
xG 0.00–0.90 (0%)attempts 3–15goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- McDonagh – Fabbro14:12
xG 0.60–0.88 (41%)attempts 10–17goals 0–3
- Foote – Stastney11:54
xG 0.21–0.58 (27%)attempts 6–18goals 1–0
- Barrie – Livingstone12:03
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).