Fri, Nov 25, 2022·Amalie Arena, Tampa
St. Louis Blues 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 110 | 19 | 08 | 227 |
| TBL | 313 | 110 | 14 | 527 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:29TBLBrayden PointAssists: Brandon Hagel, Nikita Kucherov · Backhand, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 3:57TBLAlex KillornAssists: Nick Paul, Steven Stamkos · Snap, 0.14 xG0–2
- P1 8:04TBLBrayden PointPPGWGAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P1 16:50STLPavel BuchnevichPPAssists: Robert Thomas, Jordan Kyrou · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 6:24STLJordan KyrouAssists: Robert Thomas, Pavel Buchnevich · Snap, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 6:42TBLBrandon HagelAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–4
- P3 16:12TBLNick PaulENAssists: Alex Killorn, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.75 xG2–5
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:18TBLCorey Perry: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:18STLIvan Barbashev: Fighting5 min
- P1 5:30STLRobert Bortuzzo: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 5:30TBLCal Foote: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:54STLNiko Mikkola: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:15TBLVictor Hedman: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 3:07TBLZach Bogosian: Cross checking2 min
- P2 14:25STLNoel Acciari: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:55TBLErik Cernak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Paul won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Saad – Acciari4:23
xG 0.22–0.01 (94%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Schenn – Barbashev – Acciari7:10
xG 0.35–0.26 (58%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Pitlick – Toropchenko – Alexandrov4:52
xG 0.05–0.08 (37%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Buchnevich – Kyrou – Thomas11:51
xG 0.62–0.77 (45%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestParayko – Mikkola2:12
xG 0.20–0.01 (96%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Faulk – Mikkola2:15
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 1–1
- Bortuzzo – Mikkola9:56
xG 0.10–0.20 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel12:48
xG 0.90–0.20 (82%)attempts 15–7goals 2–0
- Killorn – Stamkos – Paul10:51
xG 0.68–0.22 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 1–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Barré-Boulet4:48
xG 0.34–0.03 (91%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Foote2:14
xG 0.34–0.11 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Bogosian – Hedman2:47
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Hedman – Cernak13:44
xG 0.48–0.44 (52%)attempts 11–16goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).