Sat, Nov 26, 2022·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 4, Pittsburgh Penguins 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 117 | 210 | 114 | 441 |
| PIT | 05 | 010 | 111 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:40TORMitch MarnerAssists: Auston Matthews, Calle Jarnkrok · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 9:55TORPontus HolmbergGWGAssists: Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–0
- P2 10:50TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Michael Bunting · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–0
- P3 11:38PITRickard RakellAssists: Jake Guentzel, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–1
- P3 14:36TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Michael Bunting, William Nylander · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–1
Penalties (5)
- P1 3:27TORVictor Mete: Holding2 min
- P1 12:59PITMarcus Pettersson: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:54PITJeff Petry: Interference2 min
- P2 15:24TORZachary Aston-Reese: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:06PITJake Guentzel: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMalgin – Aston-Reese – Kampf8:22
xG 0.45–0.15 (74%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Tavares – Jarnkrok – Marner11:34
xG 0.49–0.56 (47%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- Nylander – Bunting – Matthews10:31
xG 0.74–0.88 (46%)attempts 11–15goals 2–0
- Kerfoot – Engvall – Holmberg8:37
xG 0.17–0.60 (23%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGiordano – Holl14:45
xG 1.11–0.49 (69%)attempts 17–13goals 1–0
- Liljegren – Sandin16:32
xG 1.07–0.54 (67%)attempts 18–14goals 2–0
- Mete – Liljegren2:40
xG 0.11–0.04 (71%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Zucker – Rust11:37
xG 0.67–0.45 (60%)attempts 9–9goals 0–2
- Carter – McGinn – Heinen7:10
xG 0.12–0.10 (54%)attempts 2–8goals 0–0
- Archibald – Blueger – Poehling7:02
xG 0.13–0.31 (29%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Crosby – Rakell – Guentzel14:08
xG 0.99–1.23 (45%)attempts 20–15goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Pettersson2:26
xG 0.43–0.01 (97%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Dumoulin – Rutta13:44
xG 0.61–0.87 (41%)attempts 12–14goals 0–1
- Petry – Joseph9:34
xG 0.22–0.48 (31%)attempts 6–10goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).