Mon, Nov 28, 2022·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Tampa Bay Lightning 6, Buffalo Sabres 5 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 24 | 110 | 210 | 11 | 625 |
| BUF | 214 | 18 | 210 | 05 | 537 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:54TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Brandon Hagel · Wrist, 0.23 xG1–0
- P1 16:48TBLCorey PerryAssists: Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–0
- P1 17:54BUFTage ThompsonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P1 18:53BUFJack QuinnAssists: JJ Peterka, Owen Power · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 9:07BUFTyson JostAssists: Kyle Okposo, Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P2 16:26TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Snap, 0.18 xG3–3
- P3 9:37BUFDylan CozensAssists: Rasmus Dahlin, Mattias Samuelsson · Snap, 0.07 xG3–4
- P3 14:19BUFJeff SkinnerAssists: Tage Thompson, Alex Tuch · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–5
- P3 14:35TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Alex Killorn, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.21 xG4–5
- P3 17:58TBLBrandon HagelPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Slap, 0.36 xG5–5
- OT 2:44TBLSteven StamkosGWGAssists: Nick Paul · Snap, 0.06 xG6–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 4:50TBLCole Koepke: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:26BUFJJ Peterka: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P2 14:58BUFMattias Samuelsson: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 15:27TBLNikita Kucherov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 15:27BUFRasmus Dahlin: Roughing2 min
- P3 16:47BUFTyson Jost: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 18:23BUFOwen Power: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cozens won the faceoff against Stamkos
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKucherov – Point – Hagel14:07
xG 0.40–0.19 (68%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
- Perry – Namestnikov – Colton3:03
xG 0.22–0.15 (60%)attempts 3–3goals 0–2
- Perry – Kucherov – Namestnikov2:01
xG 0.15–0.09 (62%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Maroon – Colton – Koepke6:45
xG 0.16–0.23 (41%)attempts 3–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSergachev – Perbix7:48
xG 0.69–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 1–0
- Cole – Bogosian8:43
xG 0.54–0.41 (57%)attempts 12–7goals 1–1
- Cernak – Sergachev2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestCozens – Quinn – Peterka11:02
xG 1.20–0.22 (85%)attempts 15–10goals 2–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Jost11:48
xG 0.53–0.32 (63%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Skinner – Tuch – Thompson12:51
xG 0.51–0.59 (47%)attempts 10–10goals 1–0
- Olofsson – Asplund – Mittelstadt6:55
xG 0.03–0.82 (4%)attempts 2–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestJokiharju – Power16:11
xG 1.22–1.06 (53%)attempts 18–12goals 2–2
- Samuelsson – Dahlin20:38
xG 0.52–0.49 (52%)attempts 13–17goals 2–0
- Fitzgerald – Lyubushkin8:24
xG 0.37–0.40 (48%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).